In This Race, There's No Starting Gun

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Sunday, May 13, 2007

C onventional political wisdom dictates that early political advertising campaigns are akin to flushing cash down the toilet, based on the idea that voters aren't paying enough attention for commercials to change the dynamic of a race.

Three candidates for president -- former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (R), New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) and former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) -- are placing big bets that the conventional wisdom is wrong and launching a series of ads in early caucus and primary states in hopes of getting the jump on their rivals. And a fourth, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), has started to check into advertising rates in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Romney began the ad parade Feb. 21 -- nearly four months earlier in the season than former Vermont governor Howard Dean (D) ran the inaugural ads of the 2004 primary campaign.

In the first quarter of the year, Romney spent more than $1.7 million on ad production and placement. Money well spent, spokesman Kevin Madden said. "The early ads help introduce Governor Romney to many voters in the early states and beyond for the first time, while also highlighting his ideas, his vision [and] his record," Madden said.

Richardson's ad buy has a similar motive -- to boost his name identification among voters who are familiar only with a top tier that includes Edwards, Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.). "People are paying attention now, making choices sooner," said Richardson media consultant Mark Putnam. "We want to start talking to them while they still haven't made up their minds."

Edwards's early ad campaign had a different goal: to reinforce his ardent opposition to any sort of congressional compromise on legislation to fund the war in Iraq. "Ending the war is the critical issue facing America today," said Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz. "In the wake of the president's veto, Congress began a new debate about whether or not to fund the war, and we felt compelled to add the voice of the American people before it was too late."

Will the early ad frenzy coax former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and Clinton -- the front-runners in each party -- onto the airwaves?

Don't bet on it.

The Fix had the rare opportunity recently to sit down with six Republicans ready to run for the House in 2008. In a wide-ranging discussion, the aspiring candidates talked about making a bid for Congress in spite of the difficult national environment for the GOP, their positions on the Iraq war and what it means to be a Republican in 2007.

The group consisted of five announced or soon-to-be-announced candidates -- Erwin Roberts (Kentucky's 3rd District), Tom Rooney (Florida's 16th), Marc Flagg (Florida's 22nd), Randy Demmer (Minnesota's 1st) and Dave Cappiello (Connecticut's 5th) -- as well as one, Steve Greenberg (Illinois's 8th), who is still mulling a bid.

· On deciding to run despite an unfriendly political environment, several of the candidates expressed faith that much would change between now and the election and that the current atmosphere is not as toxic as some believe.

"Sometimes when things look absolutely the worst, that's the time to buy," Demmer said.

Roberts said he is an "optimist" by nature, adding: "Things are never as bad as they seem."

And Greenberg said he relishes the chance to look "forward not backward" and "be a part of another 1994."

· On the war in Iraq, only Cappiello said he didn't agree with President Bush's approach. "The war was handled poorly from the beginning," Cappiello said.

Others were far less willing to acknowledge mistakes. Flagg, who lost both of his parents on Sept. 11, 2001, said he had visited Iraq and "what I saw is totally different from what the media is reporting."

Roberts and Rooney, both military veterans, echoed that sentiment -- albeit in slightly less incendiary terms.

"We have a chain of command," Roberts said. "I believe we need to let our military leaders make the decisions."

Rooney, an Army vet, said simply: "I put my faith in General Petraeus."

· What does being a Republican mean? For Demmer, who has served in the Minnesota state House since 2002, that can be summed up in less than a sentence: "Government that is a framework and not an end-all."

Cappiello, perhaps the most moderate candidate in the group, said the Republican brand stands for "looking to make the future a better place." He added that he chooses to emphasize fiscal rather than social issues.

A few weeks ago, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) was promoting his best-selling environmental tome at a Denver bookstore when a supporter asked why he's not running for president.

Kerry responded that he decided the timing wasn't right. Then he added, "Could that change? It might. It may change over years. It may change over months. I can't tell you, but I've said very clearly I don't consider myself out of it forever."

Thus began a Kerry '08 speculation boomlet that his aides have scrambled to tamp down. "He has closed the door," said spokesman Vincent Morris. "His answer is: running for Senate reelection, not running for president."

And Senate reelection is no foregone conclusion, Kerry advisers hasten to warn. Kerry has already drawn one Republican opponent: Jeff Beatty, a former Army Delta Force soldier, CIA hand and FBI special agent. Several state senators are reportedly considering the race as well. To fend them off, Kerry aims to raise at least $17 million, with a Boston fundraiser expected to ring up $250,000.