Panel: Climate Change Will Hurt Africa

A herd of elephants walk backdropped by Mt. Kilimanjaro in Amboseli game park in Kenya in this May 21, 2006 file photo. Global warming isn't just a matter of melting ice bergs and polar bears chasing after them. It's also Lake Chad drying up, the glaciers of Mt. Kilimanjaro disappearing, increasing extreme weather patterns, conflict, and hungry people throughout Africa. According to a recent landmark effort to assess the risks of global warming, Africa, by far the lowest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world, is projected to be among the regions hardest hit by environmental change. (AP Photo/Karel Prinsloo, file) (Karel Prinsloo - AP)

Many plant species could die. Others will migrate, but can only go so far _ either up a mountain or into the ocean toward the cooler, but still warming, higher latitudes in both northern and southern Africa. Animals will likely follow that path.

"Basically, they're trying to track their optimum climate," said Guy Midgely from the South African National Biodiversity Institute and a coordinating lead author for a chapter on ecosystems in the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel report. "It's what we call the finger print of climate change."

Globally, sea levels are projected to possibly rise one meter (three feet) by the end of the 21st century. Three of the five coastal areas in the world projected to be most at risk of flooding are in Africa.

In addition, as temperatures rise and enlarge already arid regions, resources were likely to decrease _ and human conflict could increase.

"We're already seeing growing conflicts over water resources in Africa and I am worried those conflicts are going to get worse. The Darfur situation has a water component. Definitely a resource component," Glieck said.

Climate refugees _ people responding to long and short-term climate changes _ also pose a risk.

"You'd tend to see more extremes," said Kathleen Miller of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and an author of the report's section on water resources and management. Rainstorms will tend to be harder, flash floods more likely. Africa already has plenty of refugees, any additional stress could make things worse, Miller said.

Certainly, the greatest risks are unpredictable disasters like storm surges, flash floods, and tropical cyclones.

Nearly two decades ago, in "The End of Nature," Bill McKibben likened the new human-altered climate we face to a messy divorce, where the husband comes back drunk and waving a gun. "The salient characteristic of this new nature is its unpredictability," he said.

The humans responsible are, for the most part, not African. Some say that puts the burden on the industrialized world to act to save everyone.

"The north has a moral obligation to reduce the extent of global warming through appropriate mitigation," Miller said.

"By far the largest emitters are outside of Africa ... and will have to bear the greatest cost of reducing emissions," Glieck said.