Bright Spots

Overall, statistical evidence flies in the face of the good-news, anecdotal reports of sales at the asking price or higher and suggests that the market still faces uncertainty, particularly given the crisis with subprime loans that economists fear could cripple the mortgage industry and destabilize the economy if it's not contained.

Sales of previously owned homes nationally fell 8.4 percent in March from the previous month, the steepest decline in nearly two decades, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales of new homes were up a modest 2.6 percent in that time, according to the Commerce Department, but still well below a year earlier. The supply of new homes for sale stood at 7.8 months, down from 8.1 months in February, the highest level in 16 years. About 4.5 months is considered healthy. Locally, sales statistics vary widely depending on what area you focus on and what time period you consider.

Nonetheless, real estate agent Ron Sitrin of Long & Foster in Friendship Heights said he's starting to see more consumer confidence. In the past 30 days, he said, he has sold a house and townhouse in Bethesda and a condominium in Rockville for full price, and a house in Takoma Park for "a hair below asking."

"You're still seeing a lot of people buying when they see something as a fair deal to them," he said, adding that the fear of buying something that will decline in value "has seemed to wane quite a bit."

But not all agents have witnessed that confidence.

Real estate agent Kristine Price of Samson Realty in Chantilly, whose territory includes Prince William, Fairfax and Loudoun counties, said: "I'm getting more potential buyers at my open houses. Last year, at some of the open houses, I got zero. Now I'm getting 12 to 15 buyers coming through. I'm getting a lot of traffic, but not getting a lot of offers on the table.

"When I talk to some buyers, they say, 'Maybe I should wait a little and the prices will drop more.'

"I don't think people are getting the asking prices," she said. "There's definitely wiggle room for buyers."

Real estate agent Anslie Stokes said she has noticed a surge of interest from buyers, including some who are willing to pay $10,000 to $15,000 over the asking price.

"For almost all of last year, it was rare to compete in a multiple-offer situation," said Stokes, who works for W.C. & A.N. Miller, a Long & Foster division, in Northwest Washington. "Starting in 2007, in late February someone turned the lights on and bam, they were back. I think we're slowly coming out of a slump. But you get outside the Beltway, and it's still very difficult out there."

Morici, the economist, said gasoline prices are a factor.

"With higher prices of gasoline, the preference of living far away is going to diminish, and that is going to make housing within the Beltway more attractive," he said.