New Leadership Trio Could Put Europe Back on Political Map
Merkel, Sarkozy and Brown Seen Reenergizing Region

By Molly Moore
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, May 20, 2007

PARIS -- Europe is undergoing its most dramatic changing of the guard in more than a decade. New leaders in the European Union's three preeminent countries -- Britain, France and Germany -- not only may transform their nations individually but also have the collective clout to blast Europe out of its lethargy and revitalize it as a global and diplomatic powerhouse.

"They could get the European heart beating again," said François Heisbourg, a foreign policy analyst at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.

All three new European leaders are replacing predecessors who had become national and international liabilities. Nicolas Sarkozy, 52, took over the presidency of France on Wednesday from septuagenarian Jacques Chirac, who served 12 years. Gordon Brown, 56, will become prime minister of Britain on June 27 when Tony Blair leaves after 10 years. And Angela Merkel, 53, was named chancellor of Germany in 2005, after Gerhard Schroeder's seven years in power.

The new axis of leaders is expected to moderate Europe's relationship with the United States, striking a more evenhanded tone than the emotionalism of Blair's perceived subservience or Chirac's hostility, many analysts here say.

In this view, a new U.S. president in less than two years could work with a more united, engaged Europe to leverage Middle East peace efforts, persuade Iran to curtail its nuclear ambitions and negotiate with Russia over contentious energy issues.

In recent years, the divided capitals of Europe and the go-it-alone foreign policy of the Bush administration aggravated rather than quelled some of the globe's most dangerous conflicts and disputes, many Europeans believe.

European officials and analysts also anticipate the new leadership trio will try to curb -- at least initially -- the intramural bickering of their predecessors that paralyzed the 27-member European Union as a cohesive, influential player on the international diplomatic stage.

"There will be new energy," said Markus Loening, a member of the German Parliament from the opposition Free Democratic Party. "The momentum is here in Europe."

But to achieve a new dynamism, Europe must first resolve its internal disputes. The defeat of the E.U. constitution two years ago in France and the Netherlands and both weariness and wariness over the rapid expansion from 15 to 27 countries in less than three years prompted European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to call for a "pause" to reassess the union's future.

The pause morphed into a standstill until Germany took over the rotating E.U. presidency and used it as an opportunity to try to jump-start the moribund constitution, the document meant to bind 27 disparate countries into a powerful bloc with the potential to address a globalized world in a single voice.

"Above all, we need to safeguard Europe's capacity to act," E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana said Thursday in a speech in Germany. "Our world is changing very rapidly."

He added, "Just when we should be at our most alert, just when the world's demand for Europe is at its highest, the union has turned inwards, immersed in a sterile institutional crisis. We cannot go on like this. This must be resolved as soon as possible, in 2007."

In his election night victory speech, Sarkozy declared that "France is back in Europe," after Chirac's years of antagonism with many of his European neighbors.

Then, within hours of the presidential handover on Wednesday, he dashed to Berlin to meet with Merkel.

Sarkozy is a strong ally for her vision of a slimmed-down constitution requiring a vote of individual parliaments rather than a vote of the countries' peoples. Merkel hopes to cement an agreement on the constitution with her European colleagues at a Brussels summit meeting next month.

Despite Sarkozy's personal support of a leaner treaty, he and other European leaders still must convince their Euro-skeptic constituencies that they should accept a document they won't have the chance to vote on. The 18 countries that have approved the constitution are fighting to preserve much of the original document.

Many politicians and political analysts note that there already are some sharp differences among the three leaders and that two -- Sarkozy and Brown -- are largely untested as stewards of their countries' full foreign policies.

Sarkozy, in particular, has a confrontational style. In contrast, Merkel, a former East German physicist, has quickly earned an international reputation for an unpretentious, conciliatory style that sometimes includes rearranging the seating at meetings where heads of government are arguing.

One of the most divisive issues facing the E.U. is Turkey's bid for membership. Sarkozy has unequivocally said he does not believe Turkey belongs in the union. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week appealed to Sarkozy to "overcome these prejudices." He added, "Turkey's E.U. membership is the peace project of the 21st century -- an alliance of East and West."

Some analysts blame European equivocation in part for the current civil unrest and demonstrations against Turkey's Islamic-leaning government.

"Trust in the E.U. is declining," said Senem Aydin, an analyst at the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. "Those negative sentiments are feeding into nationalist policies in Turkey. It goes to show how fragile the whole democratic process is."

At the same time, Sarkozy -- whose maternal grandfather was Jewish -- has indicated that his presidency will seek closer relations with Israel, a major shift for a country considered so hostile by then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that three years ago he urged French Jews to move immediately to Israel.

"We tend to characterize the French attitude as anti-Israel and pro-Arab," said Amaya Bloch-Laine, the Paris office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. "Sarkozy obviously took a strong position on Israel."

All West European countries are grappling with immigration issues, both the influx of new arrivals and discontent among the European-born offspring of older immigrants. Britain, France and Germany now agree that helping the African countries where many of the immigrants originate is the most effective way of slowing the illegal flow.

Sarkozy has proposed a "Mediterranean Union" that would tie southern Europe more closely with the Middle East and northern Africa.

But in the E.U., one of the greatest targets of internal squabbling is the issue of trade and protectionism. While Sarkozy has said he wants to renew France's role in Europe, he is also insisting that Europe protect its social welfare states -- a mandate many analysts consider contradictory in a competitive, free-market economy.

"The fact that we have new leaders does not mean all our European problems will be solved," said Michael Stuebgen, a member of the German Parliament from Merkel's Christian Democratic Union. "But it means we have a new chance to address the problems."

Special correspondent Shannon Smiley in Berlin contributed to this report.