Governor's Race Splits Ky. GOP
Fletcher's Ethics Cloud Leads Many in Party to Back Challenger

By Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, May 22, 2007

MONTICELLO, Ky. -- When Kentucky Republicans banded together in 2003 to make Ernie Fletcher the state's first GOP governor in more than three decades, then-U.S. Rep. Anne M. Northup enthusiastically backed the winning campaign, raising $640,000 for the doctor, preacher and politician who vowed to clean up political life in the state capital.

That was four long years ago. Northup is now one of Fletcher's most vociferous opponents and his principal challenger in Tuesday's gubernatorial primary. In a race that exposes a bitter split in the state party, Northup says the incumbent is guilty of poor ethics and worse leadership.

Neither Kentucky nor the state GOP, Northup tells voters, can afford another four years of Fletcher.

"We were so optimistic when Ernie Fletcher was elected," Northup, who lost in November after five terms in Congress, told a crowd at a Monticello pig roast. "The fact is, it hasn't worked out. We've got to go back and fix this problem so the Republican Party will be back on track."

Speaking after the event in far southern Kentucky, Northup described the state GOP as "a party without energy." If Fletcher prevails, she fears, it could affect the party's chances next year, with the White House in play and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) up for reelection.

Despite Northup's warnings, polls show Fletcher leading a three-way GOP race that includes wealthy Paducah businessman Billy Harper. On the Democratic side, former lieutenant governor Steve Beshear is leading a large field in the final polls. A candidate needs 40 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.

Fletcher's political recovery has been little short of remarkable. A year ago, he was under indictment on three misdemeanor charges of rigging state hiring to favor loyalists. He declined to speak to a grand jury, invoking his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, and issued a blanket pardon that nullified charges against nine state workers.

As the current gubernatorial campaign got underway, the state's senior Republicans encouraged Northup, an experienced campaigner from Louisville, to challenge Fletcher. Within two months of her stinging defeat by newsman John Yarmuth (D) for the House seat, she entered the race.

"I would've thought even three months ago that with Northup running, there was no way Fletcher could win reelection," said Scott Lasley, a professor of political science at Western Kentucky University. "You've seen people survive scandal and you've seen people survive strong primary candidates, but you've rarely seen someone survive both."

Fletcher has collected more than double Northup's fundraising total, despite a recent $500,000 loan that Northup made to her own campaign. He has recently challenged her credentials as a social conservative, saying over her objections that she is not a reliable vote for school prayer or gun rights. He has been traveling Kentucky, handing oversize state checks to local leaders for projects.

"He's been very aggressive," Lasley said. "He's been able to leverage incumbency effectively."

During an appearance last week at Georgetown College, just north of Lexington, Fletcher delivered a spirited defense of his tenure, sandwiched by a group rendition of "My Old Kentucky Home" and "This Little Light of Mine." He was introduced by a local mayor, a state senator and a longtime University of Kentucky basketball announcer.

"We've come through some terrible politics of destruction," Fletcher said in reference to his own troubles in a fast-paced defense of his record. He spoke of tax cuts, smaller personnel rolls and money shipped to the counties. He threw in a reference to biofuels, saying with a smile, "One thing we're good at in Kentucky is fermentation and distillation."

Fletcher was not looking nearly so smooth before the campaign. After promising to end what he called "good ol' boy" politics, the former Baptist preacher alienated legislators with an aloof style and a campaign to install loyalists in merit-based state jobs. A grand jury identified a systematic strategy approved by Fletcher that misused state resources and personnel.

"Entire cabinets and departments were tasked with carrying out various parts of this illegal plan," the grand jury wrote. "Those who got in the way of the plan were fired or moved."

After a judge ruled that Fletcher could not be put on trial while in office, the Democratic attorney general made a deal, dropping the criminal charges in return for Fletcher's signed admission that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by this administration."

In his campaign literature and on the stump, however, Fletcher calls the affair a witch hunt.

Northup, feeling bruised by her final House campaign and grief-stricken by the death of one of her six children from a heart ailment, was not looking for another race. But leaders of the party, widely believed to include McConnell, urged her to challenge Fletcher, foreseeing an entirely winnable contest.

Republican Sen. Jim Bunning has endorsed her, as has Fletcher's own 2003 running mate, Lt. Gov. Steve Pence, but Fletcher's strong campaign and the support of dozens of local Republican leaders have kept McConnell publicly neutral. Yet some Republicans worry that if Fletcher triumphs in the primary, voters would have a reason to vote Democratic the next two Novembers.

"Say he gets 45 percent of the vote on Tuesday. That's still 55 percent of the vote in his own party that he didn't get. Will they show up in November?" asked Joe Gershtenson, director of Eastern Kentucky University's Center for Kentucky History and Politics. "The Democrats will hit Fletcher very hard. They will turn his whole 2003 campaign theme right back on him, in terms of cleaning up the mess in Frankfort."

Turnout is expected to be low on Tuesday, making forecasts tricky. After a campaign of sharp elbows, Republicans are organizing a unity gathering to show they can pull together, but no one expects the hard feelings to fade so quickly, especially if Fletcher wins.

"If Ernie happens to be our nominee, the Democrats are going to defeat him in the fall," predicted Casey County Republican Chairman Jeffrey Buis. "And we can't afford to have McConnell beaten to death for a year. They would target McConnell and say, 'An indicted governor. No more of this.' "

Northup is pressing ahead, hoping a strong showing in the cities will carry her past the incumbent or at least into a runoff. On her final campaign swing, Northup accepted hugs and good wishes from supporters. She asked them to talk to their friends, go to the polls -- and say a prayer.