Is Romney Moving on Up?

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is surging in Iowa and New Hampshire.

At least that's the opinion of his aides after three polls released in the past week showed him in a strong position in those states -- a sharp contrast to his mostly single-digit status in national surveys.

One poll, conducted last week for the Des Moines Register, showed Romney backed by 30 percent of those Republicans who said they are likely to attend Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. The poll had him well ahead of his rivals: Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) had 18 percent, and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani had 17 percent.

In another Iowa poll last week, the three were about even, with McCain at 18 percent, Giuliani at 17 percent and Romney at 16 percent. In New Hampshire, Romney has registered in double digits for months, but two polls conducted last week both put him in the lead among GOP primary voters.

Aides credit the positive numbers to the time Romney has spent in Iowa, his anti-Washington message and his decision to spend money on commercials introducing himself to voters.

"Voters are looking for someone who can change the ways of Washington and turn it around," spokesman Kevin Madden said. "Governor Romney is the only candidate running an optimistic, idea-based campaign about the future of our country. That optimism and that new energy that he's presenting is clearly resonating with voters."

But polling in Iowa and New Hampshire is notoriously treacherous. Trying to predict who is motivated enough to brave the winter weather to show up to vote is a difficult proposition in December, much less May.

The Des Moines Register survey, which showed Romney with a 12-point lead over the field, was its first take on the 2008 campaign, so it's impossible to measure Romney's movement. It also did not specifically test former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee or former House speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, both of whom may run.

The result may be more attacks aimed in Romney's direction. During a conference call yesterday, McCain lashed out at Romney on immigration, saying, "Maybe his solution will be to get out his small varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn."

The comment managed to tweak Romney on both his support for gun rights (he once bragged about bagging small varmints) and a past controversy involving his lawn service employing illegal immigrants, including one from Guatemala.

-- Michael D. Shear