Is Romney Moving on Up?

By Politics
Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is surging in Iowa and New Hampshire.

At least that's the opinion of his aides after three polls released in the past week showed him in a strong position in those states -- a sharp contrast to his mostly single-digit status in national surveys.

One poll, conducted last week for the Des Moines Register, showed Romney backed by 30 percent of those Republicans who said they are likely to attend Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. The poll had him well ahead of his rivals: Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) had 18 percent, and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani had 17 percent.

In another Iowa poll last week, the three were about even, with McCain at 18 percent, Giuliani at 17 percent and Romney at 16 percent. In New Hampshire, Romney has registered in double digits for months, but two polls conducted last week both put him in the lead among GOP primary voters.

Aides credit the positive numbers to the time Romney has spent in Iowa, his anti-Washington message and his decision to spend money on commercials introducing himself to voters.

"Voters are looking for someone who can change the ways of Washington and turn it around," spokesman Kevin Madden said. "Governor Romney is the only candidate running an optimistic, idea-based campaign about the future of our country. That optimism and that new energy that he's presenting is clearly resonating with voters."

But polling in Iowa and New Hampshire is notoriously treacherous. Trying to predict who is motivated enough to brave the winter weather to show up to vote is a difficult proposition in December, much less May.

The Des Moines Register survey, which showed Romney with a 12-point lead over the field, was its first take on the 2008 campaign, so it's impossible to measure Romney's movement. It also did not specifically test former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee or former House speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, both of whom may run.

The result may be more attacks aimed in Romney's direction. During a conference call yesterday, McCain lashed out at Romney on immigration, saying, "Maybe his solution will be to get out his small varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn."

The comment managed to tweak Romney on both his support for gun rights (he once bragged about bagging small varmints) and a past controversy involving his lawn service employing illegal immigrants, including one from Guatemala.

-- Michael D. Shear

Clinton Goes to Bat for Pre-K

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) outlined her vision yesterday for pre-kindergarten education, saying that she'd like to enroll the 80 percent of 4-year-olds who aren't already in preschool programs.

In a speech in Miami Beach, Clinton said she would "establish universal pre-kindergarten education through a federal-state partnership, based on state flexibility, that ensures every 4-year-old child in America has access to a high-quality pre-kindergarten program."

According to her plan, states would be required to make preschool programs available to all 4-year-olds and to provide free access to children from poor families or families with limited English skills. Currently, about 3 million 4-year-olds are not enrolled in pre-K.

The federal government would help offset the cost of these programs, with an initial $5 billion investment growing to $10 billion over five years. The programs would be required to meet high standards. For instance, teachers would need to have a college degree and specialized training in early-childhood development.

-- Zachary A. Goldfarb

Democrats Take Edge on Cash

Democratic House and Senate campaign committees have opened a wide lead over their Republican counterparts in cash on hand in the early stages of the 2008 congressional campaigns.

At the end of April, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $9.4 million on hand, with $5.2 million in debt. The National Republican Congressional Committee had $1.6 million and $7.3 million in debt. That means House Democrats had a $9.9 million advantage.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $12.1 million on hand, with $5.5 million in debt. The National Republican Senatorial Committee had $3.4 million with no debt, a $3.2 million advantage for Democrats.

-- Zachary A. Goldfarb

An Earlier 2008 Primary for Florida

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) signed legislation yesterday to move up his state's 2008 presidential primary to Jan. 29, despite threats from Democratic and Republican leaders that they may decline to sanction the results and may punish candidates who campaign there.

The Sunshine State's primary will now be held after votes in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada and a week before a mega-primary taking shape on Feb. 5.

The Florida legislation also did away with ATM-style touch-screen voting machines, used in 15 counties, in favor of optical-scan ballots, which leave a paper trail that can be recounted in close elections.