Pakistan's Peril

In trouble, Gen. Musharraf shuns the moderate parties that could save him.

AFTER NEARLY eight years in power, Pakistani strongman Gen. Pervez Musharraf appears to be weakening. Mass demonstrations broke out against him this month in Punjab, the country's political heartland; tens of thousands at a time are turning out to cheer a Supreme Court judge who tried to investigate human rights abuses and then rejected the general's demand that he resign. Extremist groups, including the Taliban, are steadily strengthening, especially in areas near the Afghan border. Support for the government in the U.S. Congress, which has signed off on more than $10 billion in aid since 2001, is steadily fading amid persistent reports that the Pakistani army is failing to stop, and may even be supporting, Taliban operations against U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Not only Gen. Musharraf and his dogged supporters in the Bush administration have reason to worry about these developments. One reason the general is unpopular is his alliance with the United States, and the candidates to succeed him and control Pakistan's nuclear arsenal include Islamic fundamentalists and anti-Western generals. Gen. Musharraf appears inclined to use force to bolster his regime -- demonstrators have been attacked by party militias or police in several cities -- and that may seem preferable to the extremist alternatives.

But force is not the general's only option or the one most likely to succeed. Pakistan has a strong democratic alternative, in the form of two large secular political parties that between them governed the country for most of the 1990s. Though their records are far from unblemished, both share Mr. Musharraf's goals of turning back Islamic extremism in Pakistan, reconciling with India and maintaining an alliance with the United States. Both have a large popular following: the Pakistan People's Party, headed by former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, made a strong showing in the last parliamentary election in 2002, and is likely to finish first this year if scheduled elections are free and fair. Ms. Bhutto has discussed a deal with Mr. Musharraf in which she would accept his plan to extend his term as president for another five years if he drops criminal charges against her, holds fair elections and gives up his post as army commander in chief.

An alliance with the secular democrats could give Gen. Musharraf the political foundation he needs to remain in office and take stronger action against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Yet the general seems to be turning his back on the option. Last week he told a television interviewer that neither Ms. Bhutto nor former prime minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League would be allowed to return from exile before the elections. The general evidently plans to stage his own reelection without them and to manipulate the subsequent parliamentary vote to check their influence, just as he did in 2002.

The Bush administration, which has pressed Gen. Musharraf to come to terms with the secular parties, should not accept this decision. The administration has been endlessly forgiving of the strongman even as he has failed again and again to meet his commitments. If Mr. Musharraf is now allowed to isolate himself behind riot police and militia forces while shunning secular democrats, he will set the stage for just the sort of nightmare scenario in Pakistan that has motivated U.S. support for him since 2001.