Teetering Musharraf Buoyed by U.S. Alliance
Pakistani Leader Wins Administration Praise Despite Move Away From Democracy

By Griff Witte
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, May 28, 2007; A11

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, May 27 -- As confidence in Gen. Pervez Musharraf falls at home and abroad amid allegations he is moving away from democracy and becoming increasingly autocratic, the Pakistani president has had at least one unwavering ally: the United States.

Pakistanis -- particularly opposition figures -- are watching for signs that that will change. Any indication of weakening support from the United States, they say, could spell the end of Musharraf's teetering administration. But policymakers and analysts here and in Washington insist that is unlikely because the United States lacks a Plan B in Pakistan and is uncomfortable with alternatives to a man who has been considered a vital ally since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

"U.S. policy in Pakistan is to move toward free and fair elections. But in practice, that comes in well behind the anti-terrorism agenda," said Teresita C. Schaffer, a former U.S. ambassador and director of the South Asia program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Musharraf has been embroiled in the strongest challenge yet to his rule since he suspended the country's chief justice on March 9 for alleged abuses of office. The judge, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, has denied the charges, and his name has become a rallying cry for Musharraf critics who suspect the president is trying to squelch democratic institutions and consolidate power. Chaudhry had been expected to decide cases later this year that could have derailed Musharraf's plans to serve another term.

Thousands massed in the capital Saturday night -- many wearing stickers emblazoned with Chaudhry's face and the words "My Hero" -- as the chief justice warned against the dangers of autocratic leadership. "The determination of the people cannot be resisted for long. The cause is noble," he said.

The cause, Chaudhry's supporters say, is an end to military rule and a return to democracy, eight years after Musharraf seized power from the democratically elected prime minister in a bloodless coup. For the past two months, lawyers and opposition groups have staged rallies across Pakistan, some of which have been met with violence by security forces or pro-Musharraf groups. Earlier this month, more than 40 people were killed during clashes in Karachi, the country's largest city.

Musharraf critics say the violent response suggests that the president has become desperate and will use force to cling to power rather than allow elections that could dilute it.

"There are fires burning all across Pakistan. But instead of trying to defuse them, he's stoking them," said Sherry Rehman, information secretary for the Pakistan People's Party, a leading opposition group.

Musharraf insists he has his own plan for returning democracy to Pakistan. In his 2006 memoir, he wrote that since the end of the Cold War, the West has been obsessed with democracy and that "this obsession clouds its vision. . . . I have always believed in democracy, but I certainly oppose any fixed formula for all countries. If democracy is to be functional and sustainable, it has to be tailored to local conditions."

He would like to tailor it in a way that would allow him to be elected to another five-year term by a parliament that is packed with his supporters and is set to expire this fall. It also might involve staying on as both president and head of the army, even though the constitution requires him to relinquish his military position by the end of the year.

Musharraf has said national parliamentary elections will be held as scheduled, but he recently ruled out the possibility that his two biggest rivals -- former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif -- will be allowed to return from exile in time to participate. Both have said they plan to return anyway.

Musharraf's handling of the judicial crisis and his plans for the elections have earned him rebukes from European nations.

U.S. officials, while not commenting on the specifics of Musharraf's election plans, have said they believe in his vision for democracy in Pakistan. They have also complimented his anti-terrorism efforts and credited him with reviving the Pakistani economy. "The direction that President Musharraf set for Pakistan is a good one, and we are supporting that," Richard A. Boucher, assistant secretary of state, said this month.

A U.S. diplomat, who was not authorized to speak for the record, confirmed last week that the United States plans to stick with Musharraf. "We are not pulling back from that relationship in any way," the diplomat said.

The United States wields special influence in Pakistan, where power is said to stem from one of three sources: the army, Allah and America.

Of the three, Musharraf seems to be doing best with America.

A lifelong army man, Musharraf's support in the military seems to be intact, although several prominent retired generals have spoken out against him and have even talked ominously about the possibility of a coup.

Among many Islamic leaders, meanwhile, Musharraf has become deeply unpopular because of his support for the United States.

Anti-American sentiment is on the rise in Pakistan generally, which has not helped Musharraf. "If he announced tomorrow he was out of the clutches of the U.S., he would be popular again in Pakistan," said Sheik Rashid Ahmad, the railways minister and a close Musharraf ally. "But he knows the Pakistani interests and the American interests are the same."

Opposition leaders argue that the United States would be popular again in Pakistan if it dropped its support for Musharraf and embraced democracy. They blame Musharraf for fomenting extremism by marginalizing the mainstream opposition parties and by allowing radical groups to operate in order to guarantee a regular supply of U.S. military aid.

"The anti-American feelings now rising in Pakistan are a concern for all of us. But they are because of the policies of the Bush administration, which is supporting one man against 160 million people," said Sharif, the former prime minister, who spoke by phone from London.

But Daniel Markey, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that whatever Musharraf's flaws, the United States is more comfortable with him than it would be with anyone hoping to take his place.

"Until you see a visible improvement in terms of an alternative, you're very reluctant to let go of what you have," Markey said. "Washington will be the last to jump ship."