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Repairs Don't Allay Fears of Next Storm
A man fishes behind a ravaged parking lot near the 17th Street Canal levee in New Orleans. A breach in the canal levee flooded the Lakeview area after Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005. Work to repair the levee continues.
(By Mario Tama -- Getty Images)
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For any given year, the roughly 1-in-100 chance of a storm overcoming the defenses might sound like attractive odds.
But it is far below local expectations, for several reasons.
The 1-in-100 annual chance means that, over a lifetime, such an event is more likely to happen than not. Moreover, protection against the 100-year storm is far less than would be necessary for a Hurricane Katrina, which is considered a 400-year event, and certainly less than what could withstand a direct hit by a Category 5.
Finally the 100-year protection leaves the New Orleans area at far more risk than other well-known flood projects: The system in the Netherlands, for example, is designed to withstand a 1-in-10,000-year storm, the Herbert Hoover Dike around Lake Okeechobee in Florida is designed for a 1-in-935-year event, and the Mississippi River flood works are designed for a 1-in-800-year flood.
Not surprisingly, a recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation showed that 95 percent of residents here want to see Category 5 protection, even if it costs more.
"Well, for me, that's obvious," Brown said last week.
He is one of only a handful of homeowners in the area to have started rebuilding. Most of the other houses stand vacant and wrecked, but he has hopes that his neighbors will one day return.
"The more protection I can get for my home, the better," he said.
"The two questions I get most from people here are 'If another Katrina hits, are we safe?' and 'When are we going to get Category 5 protection?' " said Donald E. Powell, the federal Gulf Coast rebuilding coordinator.
As strong as the local desire for Category 5 levees is, however, the cost that would be borne by U.S. taxpayers is expected to be daunting, and it is unclear whether Congress will embrace the local ambitions for that margin of safety.
The budget for the 100-year protection project has already risen from $5.7 billion to $7 billion and is expected to rise again in July when new cost estimates are announced. Some federal officials said the figure could double.
However much the price rises, Congress would have to approve more money for what is proving to be a very expensive project.
