The Generals' Blunder

Another junta stumbles, this time in Thailand.

THAILAND'S ARMY made a serious mistake last September when it launched a coup to remove the democratically elected government of Thaksin Shinawatra. For the following nine months it has demonstrated -- again -- why rule by the military doesn't work. And now it has compounded its original error.

The generals' mistake was to think that the political turbulence caused by Mr. Thaksin, a bad prime minister who was loathed by the urban elite but beloved by Thailand's rural population, could be disposed of by sending him into exile. He duly relocated to London -- where he recently created a stir by bidding to buy a famous soccer team -- but his millions of supporters remained behind. Political uncertainty and the bumbling interim government appointed by the military have proved costly: Investment in the economy has fallen, and a Muslim insurgency in the south of the country has grown worse.

The military has promised democratic elections by the end of the year, following a referendum on a new constitution. But Mr. Thaksin's party, Thai Rak Thai, looked like it might win. That prompted the latest miscalculation: a ruling last month by a tribunal created by the military that outlawed the party and banned more than 100 of its leaders from politics for five years. The rival Democrat Party, which set the stage for the coup by disrupting Bangkok with street demonstrations, was excused from sanction.

Luckily for the generals, the tribunal decision did not immediately cause unrest. But Mr. Thaksin's supporters still have not disappeared. Some have vowed to form a new party under another name to carry on his legacy. Others may vent their disapproval of the military by voting against the constitution, which is being written by yet another unelected body. There may be good reason to do so: The draft charter includes a number of undemocratic provisions, including one that mandates a Senate not chosen by popular election.

When and if elections finally are held, there will be no way for the military to ensure against another victory by Mr. Thaksin's surrogates, if the vote is free and fair. If another party is propelled into office by manipulation, it may lack the legitimacy to restore confidence in the economy or combat the insurgency. The only way to purge Thailand of Mr. Thaksin's influence was for his policies to fail and for voters to reject them in an election. That's why the military intervention led the country into a blind alley; an exit will not be easy to find.