Infighting, Likely Low Turnout Might Tilt Virginia's Primaries

RICHMOND -- Virginians go to the polls Tuesday to decide primary elections that could help determine who controls the General Assembly next year and could test conservative and moderate strength within the state Republican Party.

On the final weekend of a relatively subdued campaign, Republican and Democratic candidates for the Senate and House of Delegates are making late appeals to voters. In Northern Virginia, voters in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties will also choose candidates for local offices.

The primary will set the stage for a grueling fall campaign for the seats of all 140 delegates and senators. On Nov. 6, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William voters also will pick county supervisors and other local officials.

Because there are no statewide candidates Tuesday, political strategists expect voter turnout in many of the primaries to be less than 5 percent, making it very difficult to predict the outcomes.

"Turnout is going to be so low, nobody can be comfortable, no matter how strong you think you are," Republican strategist J. Scott Leake said.

Tuesday's results could have a significant impact on Democratic leaders' hopes to pick up seats in the Republican-led General Assembly.

In some of the GOP contests between conservative and moderate candidates, Democrats believe their chances to gain seats this fall will improve if the conservative candidate wins. Democrats need to gain four Senate seats and 11 House seats to regain control.

"For the Republicans, there are a number of House and Senate seats that could either stay Republican or go Democratic, depending on the results of the primary," said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia politics professor.

Northern Virginia, where voters have sided with the Democrats in recent statewide elections, is likely to become ground zero in the fight for control of the General Assembly.

In one of the liveliest races, two Republicans are vying to replace retiring Sen. H. Russell Potts Jr. (R-Winchester), a moderate, in the 27th District. The district covers all of Loudoun County west of Route 15, most of Fauquier County, all of Clarke and Frederick counties and the city of Winchester. The two contenders, Mark D. Tate, a former Middleburg Town Council member, and Jill Holtzman Vogel, a lawyer from Upperville, are both conservatives.

The 27th District race has been shadowed by a campaign finance scandal. A grand jury indicted Tate on May 22 on election fraud and perjury charges stemming from his campaign finance statements. Tate said the indictments were politically motivated because supporters of Holtzman Vogel were instrumental in notifying the Loudoun County prosecutor, who backs Tate's opponent.

In a hard-fought battle for an open seat in Fairfax, R.C. "Rip" Sullivan Jr., a McLean lawyer, and Margaret G. Vanderhye, a McLean consultant, are vying for the Democratic nomination to replace retiring Del. Vincent F. Callahan Jr. (R-Fairfax).