The Airlines' Eyes on the Skies

Mark Mabey of Weather Services International generates forecasts for American Airlines' Dallas-Fort Worth hub. Mabey uses government forecasts, computer models and radar, but sometimes, he said, he just follows his gut. (Photo By Del Quentin Wilber -- The Washington Post)

FORT WORTH -- Airline meteorologist Mark Mabey stares at four computer screens on his desk. They are filled with data, charts and radar images. All seem to suggest a different potential for thunderstorms -- the airlines' enemy during the hectic summer travel season.

He rubs his chin and sighs, then walks to a large bank of windows. His eyes scan a mass of menacing clouds in the distance. He is thinking about the forecast he is trying to generate for his carrier, American Airlines.

"This isn't an easy call," says Mabey, lost in thought as he looks back toward his computers. "I might have to rely on intuition."

On this particular Monday last month, Mabey was worried about more than nasty letters or phone calls of the kind television or radio meteorologists get for predicting a sunny weekend that turns out to be a washout. The quiet, little-noticed work that Mabey and dozens of other airline meteorologists perform has huge financial and operational consequences and can affect the travel plans of thousands of passengers.

Relying on computer models, government forecasts and radar images, Mabey's predictions will dictate how American executes its schedule, files flight plans for aircraft arriving from as far away as India and loads fuel on each jet. A good forecast will save the airline cash and grief. A bad one could lead to an operational and public relations debacle -- just ask executives at American and JetBlue Airways, which have endured recent weather-related mishaps that left hundreds of passengers trapped on planes for hours.

As Mabey walks about his office, he mulls his options.

A forecast of a decent chance of thunderstorms will force dispatchers to add fuel to planes so that they might be able to circle until the weather clears. That helps the carrier prevent costly diversions to alternate airports.

But that extra fuel is heavy, requiring more of it to be burned to keep a plane airborne. With oil prices at all-time highs, airlines are doing everything they can to cut back on their use of fuel.

It's a difficult balancing act, especially in an industry that has razor-thin profit margins after years of billion-dollar losses. And during the busy and congested summer travel season, the stakes are even higher: Planes are packed, and airlines are battling record delays at airports across the country.

"Meteorologists start everything around here," said Monte E. Ford, a senior vice president and the chief information officer at American. He said the first question he asks his assistants each morning is about the day's weather outlook. "A big part of what we do is dependent on weather."

Mabey, a laid-back 48-year-old Texas native who wears glasses and short-sleeved shirts, dreamed of being an airline meteorologist when he was a little boy and kept detailed records about rainfall and temperatures in his back yard. He realized his goal in 1986, getting a job with American after spending several years bouncing around other meteorological jobs and chasing tornadoes in Texas and Oklahoma.

In 2003, American eliminated its 21-person meteorological team and hired outside contractors. Several of the airline's meteorologists, including Mabey, eventually got jobs with Weather Services International, the firm American ultimately hired to generate its forecasts.