Primary Calendar Poses Big Challenges

As they criss-cross the nation at a dizzying pace, Democratic and Republican presidential candidates are locked in a fast-track campaign that has forced frontrunners and the far-behind to rethink the traditional path to nomination seven months before a single vote is cast.

In prior campaigns, candidates fought for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire while largely ignoring the rest of the country based on a time-tested belief that wins in those two early states would slingshot them into contention. But now, with many large states moving their primaries to late January or early February, even the best-known and best-financed candidates are being forced to make tough tradeoffs.

Take the decision last week by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-N.Y.) to bow out of the Ames (Iowa) Straw Poll, a mid-summer campaign event that traditionally has provided important early visibility for candidates. Giuliani concluded he needed to conserve resources for when the votes actually count, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) pulled out of the straw poll as well hours later.

Or a recent strategy memo penned by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-N.Y.) deputy campaign manager advocating that she skip the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses next January in order to concentrate on states like Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina, all of which vote before Feb. 1. Clinton immediately disavowed the memo after it leaked out, but it underscored the challenge for a large field of candidates trying to cope with a highly demanding, front-loaded primary calendar.

Although it poses a troubling conundrum for many of the declared candidates, the new calendar may be a boon to a prominent Republican waiting in the wings. Former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) is waging an unorthodox campaign by withholding a formal announcement until the last possible moment while revving up party and media interest in his campaign.

While ten other Republicans have been running hard for months, Thompson has stayed above the fray, eschewing traditional campaign stops in favor of appearances on national cable television programs. It is an effort to appear as more of a national figure than one tied to a specific region or state, and Thompson is betting that his candidacy will catch fire just in time for the early primaries.

"This type of campaign has never been waged," said Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime. "No campaign in the past has ever been in the position where you have this many primaries in this many states that are this expensive."

This article is the first in an occasional series of Fast-Track Campaign stories that will explore the impact of the new political calendar on the 2008 presidential campaign. While there is nothing new about states moving up their presidential primaries to gain more influence over the selection of the parties' nominees, the sheer number of states that have decided to do so in the 2008 campaign cycle has forced rapid recalibrations of traditional strategies for winning the nomination fight.

In 2004 just nine states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Delaware, South Carolina, Arizona, Missouri, North Dakota, New Mexico and Oklahoma -- voted before Feb. 5, while large states like California, Ohio and New York all held votes on the now seemingly quaint "Super Tuesday" of March 2. In 2008, at least 22 states will vote before or on Feb. 5, including delegate treasure troves like California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey.

Why do it? Simple. In theory, moving up to the front of the line ensures a state a larger say in the likely outcome of a race as well as a nice economic boost thanks to the television ads, candidate visits and media throng that accompany early-state status. And, the penalty for jumping the line is minimal.

The Democratic National Committee recently warned Florida Democrats that if they move up their primary to next Jan. 29, as they intend to do, the state party will lose half of its delegates to the national convention. But, convention floor fights are a thing of the past, and most states would prefer an early primary than the full complement of their seats at the nominating convention.

And there's evidence that candidates are paying attention to these newly important states, places they would have ignored in presidential campaigns of yesteryear. Romney has paid 10 visits to Florida already, with just one of those a fund-raising trip, according to washingtonpost.com's tracker of campaign events. And New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) has placed a steep bet on Nevada -- home to the second caucus next year, currently slated to be held just before New Hampshire. He has paid 22 visits so far this year to the Silver State hoping to win a political jackpot there heading into New Hampshire.