GOP Race Fluid in State-By-State View

Republican presidential hopeful former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani speaks to the press before heading into a private dinner in Seattle on Friday, June 15, 2007. (AP Photo/Kevin P. Casey) (Kevin P. Casey - AP)

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NEVADA _ Jan. 19 (33 delegates)

The state presents a new dynamic for Republican hopefuls, given that it recently decided to hold its Republican caucuses earlier than in past years. Giuliani, McCain and Romney are trying to determine how to hard to compete in Nevada; the focus has been elsewhere. Nevertheless, all three have raised money here and rank well in surveys. So does Thompson. From neighboring Arizona, McCain may have the best chance to capture Nevada. He's a frequent visitor and he can readily address Western topics such as water rights, American Indian issues, property rights, energy development and immigration. Nevada ranks in the top five of states with the most Mormons and, as a member of that faith, Romney could benefit. But McCain isn't ceding any ground and has dispatched Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., a Mormon and an ally, to campaign in Nevada. Giuliani has scooped up some high-profile endorsements. One unknown is how the immigration issue plays in the Hispanic-heavy state.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE _ Jan. 22 (32 delegates)

The state should be McCain's to lose, given that the senator bested Bush here by 18 percentage points in 2000. He is universally known and has an existing network of backers. But he's fighting the notion that he's different from the rebel the state once embraced, and he's facing a serious challenge from Romney. The Bostonian has a vacation home here and is well-known as the GOP governor of liberal Massachusetts. His $1 million in TV ads have focused on a conservative message as he runs to the right of his rivals. Another Northeasterner, Giuliani, also has appeal here, with his moderate-to-liberal record. Independents are a wild card. In the last contested GOP primary eight years ago, they voted en masse in the GOP primary and helped McCain win. This time, the state is trending Democratic and independents could choose to participate in the star-studded Democratic contest. None of the long-shots is gaining steam.

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FLORIDA _ Jan. 29 (112 delegates)

The early advantage goes to Giuliani. The delegate-rich Sunshine State has a Republican electorate most amenable to his moderate-to-liberal views and plenty of retired New Yorkers. Giuliani, who has a double-digit lead in state surveys, has focused on solidifying support and building an organization here, perhaps more so than anywhere else. Giuliani also is a celebrity who attracts cash, and strong fundraising is crucial with Florida's expensive media markets. Romney is giving chase to Giuliani and has the support of several allies to popular former Gov. Jeb Bush. McCain, too, is a regular in Florida, and campaigned for current Gov. Charlie Crist last fall. Three variables loom large: the impact of the strong-polling Thompson, how immigration plays in the Cuban and Haitian bastions and the fallout of the state's decision to move up the primary in violation of party rules. The GOP says states that cross it will lose half their delegates.

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SOUTH CAROLINA _ Feb. 2 (46 delegates)

The Southern state is ripe for Thompson to bigfoot the top-tier contenders who are locked in a three-way race but haven't won over influential conservatives. A state survey shows the all-but-declared candidate essentially tied with Giuliani. McCain's state campaign is a powerhouse in organization and endorsements, but his unpopular immigration stance and lingering resentment from a bitter 2000 race complicate his quest. He counts the state's popular Sen. Lindsey Graham as a close friend and adviser. Romney has a strong presence and has spent money on TV ads and direct mail. But his Mormon faith is an obstacle in a state heavily populated by Christian evangelicals. Giuliani is popular with moderates along the coast; conservatives elsewhere don't like his support for abortion rights and gun control. Huckabee is a possible dark horse, given his credentials as a Southern Baptist preacher and former governor. But some voters aren't convinced he can win in November. Enter Thompson, a Tennessean with a right-leaning Senate resume.

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MEGA TUESDAY _ Feb. 5 (at least 831 delegates)

It's all about momentum and money on Mega Tuesday; candidates will need heavy doses of both to compete in more than a dozen states holding contests. Retail politicking will give way to ultra-expensive TV advertising. More than 50 percent of the GOP delegates will have been chosen when voting ends on what amounts to a national primary day. If Giuliani survives earlier states, he could be a force given the roster of Northeastern states where he has ties and delegate-rich states where he could have appeal _ California (173), New York (102), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (30). The Giuliani camp has suggested the rapid-succession primary calendar may dilute the importance of leadoff states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Thus, he also has been spending time in Feb. 5 states and paying particular attention to California. There, and in some other states, candidates can win delegates congressional district by congressional district, and they may try to cherry pick the districts offering the most delegates. McCain and Romney contend the compressed calendar makes early states even more important. Even so, they, too, have ventured to California and are establishing operations in other Mega Tuesday states. Romney was born and raised in Michigan, and he's angling to triumph there. McCain won the state in 2000 and wants a repeat. Thompson's Tennessee and nearby Georgia also vote that day. Arkansas, where Huckabee was governor for 10 1/2 years, is on the roster as well.