A Record Beyond Reach?

Yankees' Rodriguez Seems Destined to Fall Short of Wilson's Mark of 191 RBI

In the pantheon of baseball's all-time records, Hack Wilson's mark of 191 RBI in a season, set in 1930 for the Chicago Cubs, holds a special place. While most other major offensive records of that era have fallen over the past decade, Wilson's record not only has endured, it has never even been threatened. In the last half-century, no one has come within 25 RBI of 191 (Manny Ramirez, with 165 in 1999, came closest).

This could have been the year Wilson's mark fell. In New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, we had the perfect candidate -- a once-in-a-generation superstar at the peak of his powers, batting in a power-packed lineup with plenty of opportunities to swing with runners on base.

But while Rodriguez's raw numbers are impressive -- entering the weekend, he had driven in 73 runs in the Yankees' first 70 games, a 169-RBI pace -- a deeper look reveals why Rodriguez is destined to come up short of Wilson's mark. It also shows why that record may never be broken.

Thanks to the RBI-percentage tool at BaseballProspectus.com, we know that Rodriguez has come to the plate with more runners on base -- 237 of them, entering the weekend -- than anyone else in baseball. But Rodriguez has driven in only 19.4 percent of those runners, which ranks just 16th in the majors -- and well short of what is realistically needed to threaten Wilson's mark.

In an exceptional year, a batter might come to the plate with a total of 550 runners on base (Rodriguez is on pace for 548). Since 1957, only four players -- led by George Brett's 26.9 percent in 1980 -- have driven in 25 percent or more of their runners on base. This year's leader, Detroit's Magglio Ordoñez, is at 22.4 percent.

Consider that a player who comes to the plate with 550 runners on base and drives in 25 percent of them (137.5 total) -- an exceptional rate -- would still need to hit 54 home runs to reach 191 RBI. Rodriguez certainly can get the requisite homers (his current pace is 62), but to make a run at Wilson's RBI record he needs to start converting more of his RBI opportunities.

One thing working in Rodriguez's favor, of course, is the abilities of the batters who hit ahead of him in the Yankees' lineup. Rodriguez bats cleanup with Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu typically ahead of him. They have career on-base percentages of .353, .390 and .410, respectively. Damon's is slightly down this year (.339), while Jeter's is up (.418).

Meantime, Abreu, the third hitter in the Yankees' lineup, has had a bizarre year -- posting OBPs of .360 in April and .267 in May, before exploding in June at a .483 clip. It is perhaps not surprising that Rodriguez's RBI totals have followed suit: From 34 in April, to 11 in May, to 28 so far in June (entering the weekend).

"I've always felt that one of the big keys for Alex, as far as getting him going, is how Abreu is doing ahead of him," Yankees Manager Joe Torre said. "When Bobby's getting on base and doing the things he's capable of doing, it changes the whole equation for Alex."

Another factor in Rodriguez's favor, oddly enough, is the lack of home run power at the top of the Yankees' lineup. To get to 191 RBI, you can't have the guys who hit ahead of you clearing the bases with home runs. Combined, Damon, Jeter and Abreu have hit only 13 homers this season entering the weekend, and only Jeter (.483) owns a slugging percentage of higher than .400.

There are records that will never be broken, and then there are records like Wilson's 191 RBI -- which hold just enough hope that the perfect player will come along, in the perfect situation and the perfect season, to knock it down.