Is Arnold a Republican?

SACRAMENTO -- A possible tradeoff was discussed during the California Chamber of Commerce's annual advocacy conference here last week: weakening the state's rigid term limits in exchange for legislative redistricting that would benefit Republicans. For that arrangement to be born, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger would have to serve as midwife. But he does not seem prepared to play the role.

The Republican Party's condition in the nation's most populous state is desperate, with Schwarzenegger its only visible asset. Yet a redistricting that would help the GOP immeasurably is considered outside the frame of reference for the Republican governor, who remembers the issue as one of the ballot propositions he lost in the disastrous election of 2005. His current national priority is preaching the menace of global warming, and his state mission is practicing the "post-partisanship" of governing across party lines.

Is Schwarzenegger really a Republican? Less so than was the young immigrant who rose from body builder to movie star. Less so than was the unexpected candidate who replaced Democratic governor Gray Davis in the 2003 recall election. Less so than was the compelling orator who addressed the 2004 Republican National Convention. Less so than he probably would be if he had been born in Alabama instead of Austria and could run for the GOP presidential nomination next year. While he is embraced by business interests as incomparably better than Davis or any other Democrat, he is a crushing disappointment to hard-pressed Republican activists.

The Time magazine cover twinning Schwarzenegger with New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg conveys a false impression. Schwarzenegger's Republican roots run deeper than those of Bloomberg, who took the party label seven years ago so he could become mayor but shed it last week -- or for that matter than those of Colin Powell, who joined the GOP 12 years ago and sounds as though he might leave it now.

People who knew Schwarzenegger during his body-building days describe a fervent conservative well read in free-market economics. When I met him, he was a famous actor traveling with presidential nominee George H.W. Bush's entourage in 1988 -- an enthusiastic supporter who served as a warm-up speaker at the candidate's rallies.

Even now, he governs in much the same way as the state's last Republican governor, Pete Wilson. Employers count on Schwarzenegger to restrain the legislature's voraciously anti-business Democratic majority, particularly on workers' compensation. He belatedly brought California into compliance on welfare reform.

But state Sen. Tom McClintock, who as the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor went down with the rest of the ticket last year (while Schwarzenegger won comfortably), writes a steady drumbeat of essays deploring the governor's administration. In "Budget & Tax News" this month, the number-crunching conservative reports that state spending and the budget deficit are growing faster than they did under Davis. What McClintock proclaims publicly, other GOP legislators murmur privately.

The turning point came when Schwarzenegger went head-to-head against the state's powerful labor unions, and all of his ballot initiatives were defeated in the 2005 elections. That brought many changes. Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's nationally renowned Republican political consultant, who guided him in victory, in the 2003 recall election, and in defeat, with the 2005 ballot propositions, was gone. Liberal Democrat Susan Kennedy became his chief of staff. His Democratic wife, Maria Shriver, gained influence. Peace was made with labor. The governor broke his pledge of no tax increases by proposing $4.5 billion in "fees" to finance his health plan. And Tom McClintock went on the warpath.

"I rediscovered my original purpose," Schwarzenegger declared in his "post-partisanship" inaugural address. "Like Paul on the road to Damascus, I had an experience that opened my eyes." But there is nothing in the Bible to indicate that Saint Paul embraced the principles of his enemies after a political defeat.

Schwarzenegger reportedly spends a lot of his time in Los Angeles rather than Sacramento (kindling speculation that he may eventually run for mayor of L.A.). It is hard to tell where the governor is these days, because his whereabouts are often shrouded in secrecy. That fits the uncertainty of California Republicans who don't know whether their only statewide elected official is with them in spirit.

© 2007 Creators Syndicate Inc.