The Bearing Question: Which Way Will Grunfeld Go?

Ernie Grunfeld, shown last year, faces a pivotal offseason, starting with tomorrow's draft and hinging on Gilbert Arenas. (By John Mcdonnell -- The Washington Post)

Ernie Grunfeld has less than 48 hours to make a decision, and it has little to do with picking 16th tomorrow. The NBA draft is small change next to the real dilemma.

Grunfeld has to ask himself whether he truly believes the Wizards could have replaced Cleveland in the NBA Finals if Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler had been healthy. That means not drastically altering the current roster.

Or does Grunfeld see what most saw, the team that was slip-sliding away at the end of the season, whose defensive breakdowns made it impossible for the Wizards to contend, much less get out of the first round?

Which end of the argument the franchise's architect comes down on -- what Grunfeld decides -- means everything to Washington's future. Including the seminal question hanging over next season: Does Gilbert stay or go?

Arenas says opting out of his contract next summer is only a business decision. But at 25 years old, he is entering the prime of his career. He doesn't want to spend his best years watching the playoffs on TNT. If, at the end of next season, he feels the Wizards are not demonstrably closer to winning a title than they are at this minute, he would be foolish to stay.

And that's where Grunfeld comes in. His need for change or his pledge to continuity will directly impact his star's decision. In order, he needs to find a gem or swing a deal tomorrow night, give the appearance of an upgrade from last season by October and keep the most important player in modern franchise history happy.

Easy, no?

"Gilbert is happy," Grunfeld said yesterday in a telephone interview. "He likes the city. He loves the fans and the fans love him. He wants to win. We have to win. Simple as that. That takes care of everything."

Dynamics are shifting quickly these days at Verizon Center. Next week Grunfeld will officially be named team president, inheriting the title from the outgoing Susan O'Malley, Abe Pollin's chief confidant who spent more than 20 years with the team. It won't change Grunfeld's job description. But there is no question he has the implicit trust of the man team employees call Mr. Pollin.

Grunfeld's power has consolidated. If the Wizards don't contend for the Eastern Conference title next season and the Eddie and Ernie Show were to end after five years, it's safe to say Coach Eddie Jordan would be the one changing jobs.

Jordan's assistant coaches have yet to be given contract extensions for the upcoming season. Jordan wanted extensions for them last season after he signed an extension. Citing club policy, the Wizards vetoed the idea but made it clear Jordan would have on his staff whom he wanted. Grunfeld plans to remedy the problem after the draft, but let's be clear:

Jordan and his staff don't have much of a leash this season. Fairly or not, they will be held accountable more than the front office or the team's stars for any struggles.