By Mike Wise
Wednesday, June 27, 2007; E01

Ernie Grunfeld has less than 48 hours to make a decision, and it has little to do with picking 16th tomorrow. The NBA draft is small change next to the real dilemma.

Grunfeld has to ask himself whether he truly believes the Wizards could have replaced Cleveland in the NBA Finals if Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler had been healthy. That means not drastically altering the current roster.

Or does Grunfeld see what most saw, the team that was slip-sliding away at the end of the season, whose defensive breakdowns made it impossible for the Wizards to contend, much less get out of the first round?

Which end of the argument the franchise's architect comes down on -- what Grunfeld decides -- means everything to Washington's future. Including the seminal question hanging over next season: Does Gilbert stay or go?

Arenas says opting out of his contract next summer is only a business decision. But at 25 years old, he is entering the prime of his career. He doesn't want to spend his best years watching the playoffs on TNT. If, at the end of next season, he feels the Wizards are not demonstrably closer to winning a title than they are at this minute, he would be foolish to stay.

And that's where Grunfeld comes in. His need for change or his pledge to continuity will directly impact his star's decision. In order, he needs to find a gem or swing a deal tomorrow night, give the appearance of an upgrade from last season by October and keep the most important player in modern franchise history happy.

Easy, no?

"Gilbert is happy," Grunfeld said yesterday in a telephone interview. "He likes the city. He loves the fans and the fans love him. He wants to win. We have to win. Simple as that. That takes care of everything."

Dynamics are shifting quickly these days at Verizon Center. Next week Grunfeld will officially be named team president, inheriting the title from the outgoing Susan O'Malley, Abe Pollin's chief confidant who spent more than 20 years with the team. It won't change Grunfeld's job description. But there is no question he has the implicit trust of the man team employees call Mr. Pollin.

Grunfeld's power has consolidated. If the Wizards don't contend for the Eastern Conference title next season and the Eddie and Ernie Show were to end after five years, it's safe to say Coach Eddie Jordan would be the one changing jobs.

Jordan's assistant coaches have yet to be given contract extensions for the upcoming season. Jordan wanted extensions for them last season after he signed an extension. Citing club policy, the Wizards vetoed the idea but made it clear Jordan would have on his staff whom he wanted. Grunfeld plans to remedy the problem after the draft, but let's be clear:

Jordan and his staff don't have much of a leash this season. Fairly or not, they will be held accountable more than the front office or the team's stars for any struggles.

In Grunfeld's mind, the Wizards are good enough now to contend. He's not blind; he, like everybody in the NBA, knows they need a real inside presence and flammable scorer off the bench to be a 55-win team. Something has to be done at the center position. He knows the two-headed monster of Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood just doesn't scare anyone.

And for all the Phoenix and Golden State wannabes, the bottom line is that two defensive teams met for the NBA title. Again. The Wizards currently don't do defense.

But Grunfeld also remembers how good his team looked at 31-21 in January, with two all-stars, a coach who had them lighting up the league without an injured Darius Songailia and a couple of dominant performances against Detroit. If LeBron James and some defensive elbow grease could get the Cavaliers past the Pistons and into the finals, Grunfeld is thinking, why can't the Wizards do the same?

Jordan is at home, saying, "Get me the next Kenyon Martin." He wants a fearless 'baller, preferably with tats and 'tude. Anyone who can give his nicey-nice locker room some real edge. Grunfeld actually wouldn't mind that player, depending on what he had to give up. Shotgun marriage and all, the coach and the GM will be smiling together if they win a couple of playoff rounds next season. The next phase of their partnership starts tomorrow.

This draft is deep, full of nice perimeter players and athleticism. The Wizards could land a decent wing player at No. 16 to compensate for the minutes Jarvis Hayes gave them. He's almost certainly gone. They're also peddling a package featuring Thomas and Antonio Daniels harder than an infomercial, hoping for any takers.

It would be fortunate if Kansas's Julian Wright fell to No. 16. Long, athletic scorers and rebounders are what help teams win these days, and Wright is certainly that. Recent history has shown that general managers have a penchant for overpaying 6-foot-11 players with potential. If the free agent market becomes too rich for Andray Blatche to ignore, Wright could be insurance for that loss.

They should keep DeShawn Stevenson, if at all possible. He's the first player since Larry Hughes left with whom Arenas has been able to form a nice bond. Ironically, his flameout in the playoffs -- when he was asked to do a lot more than his original spot-up-and-shoot gig -- may help the Wizards keep him. He's not in that much demand, which may make him affordable.

But all of that is just detail parsing. The big issue is still: What does Grunfeld take from last year? Does he see a team with promise unfulfilled or a mirage that maximized everything the first half of season?

This isn't just another draft; this is the pivotal offseason for the Arenas era in Washington. The clock is ticking on much more than whom the Wizards choose at No. 16.