A Political Force With Many Philosophies

Already Influential -- and Growing

Independents are already a significant force in American politics, and their numbers are growing: In most recent polls, independents outnumbered Republicans -- but not Democrats -- in the population.

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Fifty years ago, independents accounted for about a quarter of all adults. Today, that proportion is between three in 10 and four in 10, depending on the survey. In most states that have party registration, independents or those who decline to state a party preference are the fastest-growing segment of voters, according to Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

Independents mirror the population in terms of age, income and education. But they are disproportionately male. A majority of independents are men, while a majority of Democrats are women and the GOP is typically divided evenly between men and women.

Independents also are more secular than the overall electorate. Four in 10 in the new study would like to see religion have less influence on politics and public life than it does now. Almost a fifth say they have no religion.

Brent Page, a retired social studies teacher from Aurora, Colo., described himself as a Protestant and "semi-churchgoer" who thinks religion should be kept out of politics. "I believe in the separation of church and state," Page said. He said religion should play a role in home and family but should be "out of politics."

Although independents are generally seen as occupying the political center, their growing discontent with Bush has pushed them increasingly toward the Democrats.

In the 2006 elections, independents split 57 percent to 39 percent for the Democrats, the largest margin either party has received from independents in a congressional election since national exit polls began measuring the House vote in 1976.

Three-quarters of independents in the Post-Kaiser-Harvard study described themselves as either dissatisfied or downright angry at the policies of the Bush administration. Almost half, 48 percent, called Bush the worst modern president.

A major reason then and now for the tilt toward the Democrats is opposition to the Iraq war. Among the two-thirds of independents in the new survey who said the war is not worth fighting, most hold that view "strongly."

Starrs, the New Jersey editor, once considered herself a Republican and voted for Bush in 2004. She now calls herself an independent, and she said the war was "the biggest factor" in her shift. Starrs said she opposed the war from the beginning but set aside those misgivings in 2004 and voted to reelect the president.

"At the time, I ranked other issues higher," she said. "This election, I do not. Iraq is the number one issue for me in this election."