A Political Force With Many Philosophies

The Disengaged make up about a quarter of all independents and typically have little or no interest in politics. They are the least likely to be registered to vote, the most likely to have at most a high school education, and the youngest of any group. Four in 10 are younger than 30.

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Leaning Left but Staying Open

As a whole, independents already have reshaped the landscape for 2008 because of how they voted in 2006, and in the opening stages of the campaign, they remain strongly tilted toward Democrats.

There are more Disguised Democrats (15 percent of independents) than Disguised Republicans (9 percent), and even among those less closely aligned with one of the parties, Democrats enjoy clear advantages.

Two-thirds of all independents would seriously consider supporting a Democratic presidential candidate, while fewer than half said they would seriously consider voting for a Republican.

Melissa Stevenson, a homemaker from Three Rivers, Mich., voted twice for Bush but voted for Democratic Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm last year. As Bush's second term nears an end, she is leaning toward the Democrats. "I tend to think it's good to go back and forth," she said.

Fred Wood, the Ohio retiree, said he was very optimistic when the Democrats took over the House and Senate in January, believing that the Republicans had blown it over the past six years. Now he questions whether the Democrats are up to the job.

"What have they done for the good of the country?" he asked. "Nothing that I can think of."

Ultimately, many independents will base their votes on their perceptions of the candidates, not the parties they represent, and the survey shows wide variations in their early impressions.

Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) draws the fewest negatives of any Democratic candidate, followed by former senator John Edwards (N.C.). New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is the most polarizing of the three leading Democrats, but independents are least drawn to a Gore candidacy.

Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) are the most acceptable Republicans among independents. Clear majorities said they would consider voting for either. That is not the case for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney or former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.).

Independents put former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) in a league of his own: Two-thirds said they would definitely not vote for him for president.

One question for all the candidates is whether independents will reveal an opening for someone to mount a challenge to the major-party nominees.

About half of independents said they prefer the next president to be a Democrat or a Republican. But around three in 10 said they prefer an independent, and about two in 10 said they either do not know what they want or lean toward an existing third party.

A majority of independents said they would consider backing Bloomberg, while a third said they would definitely not. That level of support is not enough to get New York's mayor to the White House, but it could provide a base for the start of a serious challenge to the two dominant parties.

Cathy Senko, an elementary school teacher in Pittsburgh, backed independent Ross Perot in 1992 and now hopes that Bloomberg will run. "I think he did a fantastic job in New York," she said. "I would vote for him."

Whether Bloomberg is in the race or not, the competition for independents' support will be far more intense in 2008 than it was four years ago. Having flexed their muscles in 2006, independents have guaranteed a hearing from all the candidates between now and November 2008.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta and political researcher Zachary A. Goldfarb contributed to this report.