Virginia May Spurn GOP in '08

Although independents are dissatisfied with Bush, the poll indicates they are open to and even prefer the GOP's position on some key issues.

Independents rank the two parties evenly when asked which party better represents their views on managing the economy. They also side with the GOP on tax policy and give it an advantage of 14 percentage points on the question of which party would be better at fighting terrorism.

One respondent, Lester Berlin, 51, of Charlottesville, said he is torn between his opposition to the war and his belief that Democrats are weak on national security.

"Even though the Democrats have indicated they are strong on terrorism, you just don't get the feeling they would really be willing to make the hard choices to do that," Berlin said.

U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.), a possible candidate for the U.S. Senate next year, said he's confident that the GOP's prospects in Virginia will improve after both parties settle on a nominee next year. Virginia's presidential primary is Feb. 12.

"The generic ballot everywhere is going to be Democratic today," Davis said. "That is a reflection of the president's standing. What you need to remember, come February of next year, the face of the Republican Party changes from Bush to someone else, and that will be an automatic improvement."

U.S. Rep. Robert C. Scott (D-Va.) said that the Republican Party's problems go beyond Bush.

"President Bush is a problem, but that is only because he is the face of all the Republican issues," said Scott, who said demographic changes, particularly in Northern Virginia, are fundamentally altering the state's politics.

But the survey suggests that a possible moderate independent candidate could cloud the state's electoral picture next year.

Fifty-six percent of Virginia voters, including 60 percent of independents, said the two-party system doesn't do a good job of addressing issues important to them.

More than half of Virginia residents, including three-quarters of independents, said they would consider voting for an independent candidate in 2008.

"For some reason, we don't seem to produce what I consider to be top-of-the-line presidential candidates," said Gary Gibbs, 64, a retired Army officer from Luray, who said he's desperate for a candidate who has "a strong message" and "a sincere approach."

Concurrent with a national poll of independents, the Virginia poll was conducted by phone May 3 to June 3 among 1,708 randomly selected adults in Virginia. Results from the full poll have a margin of error of three percentage points. Error margins are higher for subgroups.

Polling director Jon Cohen contributed to this report.