Kaine's Steady Popularity Could Hit Turbulence

Budget Shortfall Might Weaken Governor's Support

RICHMOND -- Veteran Democratic strategist Dave "Mudcat" Saunders reaches back to classical Greece to describe Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's popularity with Virginia voters.

"I think he's got a shield the size of Alexander the Great's," said Saunders, a Roanoke-based strategist who now works for Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards.

Despite several controversial decisions, including supporting an elevated Metro line through Tysons Corner and vetoing an expansion of the death penalty, criticism doesn't appear to stick to Kaine as he continues to earn high marks in the polls.

Kaine (D), who notes that magazines have named Virginia the best state in which to raise a child and do business, plans to use his popularity to make a major push to elect more Democrats to the General Assembly this fall. But the governor faces some difficult decisions in the coming months that could erode some of his support nearing the midway point of his four-year term.

In the fall, Kaine will begin drafting his first two-year budget, which is when Virginia governors traditionally have their greatest impact on the direction of the state.

With the fight over transportation money behind him, Kaine will likely use his 2009-11 budget to push for many of his remaining campaign promises, including making pre-kindergarten available to all 4-year-olds, expanding access to health care and bolstering environmental protection.

"This is a great opportunity for me to try to put my affirmative stamp on things now and in the future," Kaine said in an interview.

But unlike in recent years, when a strong economy resulted in double-digit increases in revenue, Kaine could be hampered by a worsening fiscal outlook.

Virginia ended its 2007 budget year June 30 with a projected shortfall of $200 million to $300 million. The gap, caused by a slowing housing market and higher than expected tax refunds, is expected to continue into the fiscal year that started July 1.

The weakening economy comes at the same time the state is facing growing calls to boost spending on mental health services in the aftermath of the April 16 Virginia Tech massacre.

Kaine, who has said he won't push for another statewide tax increase, has warned that some budget cuts may be needed to pay for some of his other priorities.

"You just tighten your belts," Kaine said.