Kaine's Steady Popularity Could Hit Turbulence
Budget Shortfall Might Weaken Governor's Support

By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, July 8, 2007; C01

RICHMOND -- Veteran Democratic strategist Dave "Mudcat" Saunders reaches back to classical Greece to describe Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's popularity with Virginia voters.

"I think he's got a shield the size of Alexander the Great's," said Saunders, a Roanoke-based strategist who now works for Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards.

Despite several controversial decisions, including supporting an elevated Metro line through Tysons Corner and vetoing an expansion of the death penalty, criticism doesn't appear to stick to Kaine as he continues to earn high marks in the polls.

Kaine (D), who notes that magazines have named Virginia the best state in which to raise a child and do business, plans to use his popularity to make a major push to elect more Democrats to the General Assembly this fall. But the governor faces some difficult decisions in the coming months that could erode some of his support nearing the midway point of his four-year term.

In the fall, Kaine will begin drafting his first two-year budget, which is when Virginia governors traditionally have their greatest impact on the direction of the state.

With the fight over transportation money behind him, Kaine will likely use his 2009-11 budget to push for many of his remaining campaign promises, including making pre-kindergarten available to all 4-year-olds, expanding access to health care and bolstering environmental protection.

"This is a great opportunity for me to try to put my affirmative stamp on things now and in the future," Kaine said in an interview.

But unlike in recent years, when a strong economy resulted in double-digit increases in revenue, Kaine could be hampered by a worsening fiscal outlook.

Virginia ended its 2007 budget year June 30 with a projected shortfall of $200 million to $300 million. The gap, caused by a slowing housing market and higher than expected tax refunds, is expected to continue into the fiscal year that started July 1.

The weakening economy comes at the same time the state is facing growing calls to boost spending on mental health services in the aftermath of the April 16 Virginia Tech massacre.

Kaine, who has said he won't push for another statewide tax increase, has warned that some budget cuts may be needed to pay for some of his other priorities.

"You just tighten your belts," Kaine said.

Given the shaky financial outlook, Republican leaders in the General Assembly say it's impractical for Kaine to push his pre-kindergarten initiative, which they estimate will cost $300 million annually.

"I don't see right now, with the budget difficulties, how he will be able to get any big projects through," said House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem). "It's not that we are going to block him intentionally. It's just the circumstances at this point."

But Kaine is banking on voters sending more Democrats to the General Assembly.

Last month, Kaine raised $750,000 at a fundraiser to help Democrats pick up the four seats they need to retake control of the Senate and some of the 11 they need to regain the House.

"There is going to be a lot of change in the legislature this year. . . . I am going to try to influence the change so I get partners that I can work with very well," said Kaine, who is vowing to run a positive campaign.

Kaine's involvement in this fall's state races could strain his relationships with moderate Republicans, who were among his biggest allies in the fight over transportation funding.

Sen. Thomas K. Norment Jr. (R-James City), a moderate on the powerful Finance Committee, warned there might be "political payback through the budget process" if Kaine becomes "too engaged either in rhetoric or money in some of these races."

"He needs to work with the Republican majority if he hopes to advance any element of his agenda," said Norment, who pointed out that it is unlikely the Democrats could retake both the House and Senate.

Kaine is nearing the midpoint of his administration at the same time numerous governors across the country, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), are being singled out for launching innovative programs to deal with issues such as health care, environmental protection and education. Kaine, who will go into the next legislative session with a new chief of staff and legislative director, probably also wants to find ways to bolster his legacy, analysts say.

"His challenge is going to be, come up with something very inexpensive or so compelling that the General Assembly is willing to say the cost isn't an issue," said Sean T. O'Brien, executive director of Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership.

Kaine's legislative record has been mixed.

Even though he helped prompt the Republican-controlled General Assembly to act on transportation, Kaine was forced to accept a road-building plan that he didn't like because it didn't include a statewide tax increase.

Kaine is about halfway toward his goal of preserving 400,000 acres of open space. But environmentalists say he has fallen short of his campaign pledge to start initiatives to curb suburban sprawl, even though he won approval in 2006 of his plan to measure traffic on nearby roads before a new development is approved.

"I think there is sort of a loss of focus in our view," said Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth. "A much more comprehensive vision of urban revitalizations, transit-oriented development is what we need. I think we are getting pieces of that, but not a comprehensive approach."

Kaine says he isn't giving up on the growth issue.

"I got 2 1/2 years left and will continue to find ways to give communities the tools they need to manage growth," he said.

Kaine has also begun taking criticism for some of his recent decisions, including the makeup of the panel investigating the Virginia Tech massacre. The families of some of the victims have criticized Kaine for not asking them to play a bigger role. When the panel issues its final report this fall, Kaine might have to stake out politically difficult positions on gun control and the openness of college campuses.

During the past few weeks, Kaine has taken heat from residents angry about a provision in the transportation bill that calls for large fines for bad drivers.

Nonetheless, Kaine's approval rating is hovering around 70 percent, the highest of any statewide officeholder. Political analysts say Kaine is being rewarded for his warm personality and the perception that he is bipartisan, as well as for his oratory skills. During speeches, he frequently uses "we" instead of "I" to make listeners feel as if they are a part of his government.

Kaine thrives on one-on-one interactions. He recently spotted a group of students from a Richmond elementary school touring the Capitol grounds. Kaine's paternal instincts took over as he hugged the children, formed a giant hand sandwich with them and took questions whispered into his ear by students.

"Make sure the little ones get in front," Kaine said as the teacher was about to snap a photograph.

Saunders, who helped elect former governor Mark R. Warner (D) in 2001, says Kaine is "right up there with the best of them" when it comes to retail politics.

A.E. Dick Howard, a law professor at the University of Virginia who served as counselor to Gov. Charles S. Robb (D) in the early 1980s, said Virginia voters may judge Kaine a success even if he fails to achieve bold policy initiatives.

"In this state, the governor gets a lot of credit for simply doing a solid job of meeting the state's basic needs," Howard said. "He doesn't need to be a Schwarzenegger, and most people in Virginia prefer he just as well not be."