Analysis: Giuliani's Unorthodox Campaign

Republican Presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani, center, and his wife Judith, right, take a tour of the garage area at the Daytona International Speedway before the start of the Pepsi 400 stock car race Saturday afternoon July 7, 2007 in Daytona Beach, Fla. Giuliani is serving as honorary race official. (AP Photo/John Raoux) (John Raoux - AP)

"Just because something has never happened before, there's no reason why it can't happen now. History is a guide to the future, not a straitjacket," said GOP consultant Whit Ayres.

The best scenario for such a strategy to succeed is if there are different winners in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Fabrizio said.

"The key to Giuliani's ultimate victory is that there be no one consensus conservative that emerges to challenge him; he needs more conservative candidates to split up the vote as you move to Feb. 5 and beyond," Fabrizio said.

Giuliani's campaign touts his fundraising performance, saying his strong showing _ he has about $15 million in the bank _ lets him pay attention now to Florida and the Feb. 5 states.

"This is a unique primary campaign that nobody has ever run before," Giuliani's campaign manager, Mike DuHaime, told reporters last week.

"We've never had so many big, and therefore expensive, states front-loaded as early as possible into the primaries," he said. "So having the resources to be flexible and be able to look at the early states, look at the Feb. 5 states, and decide where we can be most effective with our dollars is very important."

Among his top rivals, Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has about $12 million, and McCain, an Arizona senator, has $2 million, according to recent campaign money reports.

Cash for advertising is critical to a Feb. 5 strategy. Much of the television advertising in Florida and the Feb. 5 states will happen well before the voting in Iowa and New Hampshire. If Giuliani wanted to advertise in all those states, he would need an estimated $14 million a week, Fabrizio said.

Advertising in Florida or California alone might cost as much as $5 million each.

Whether a Feb. 5 strategy works is uncertain given the unknowns of the 2008 campaign, which is happening earlier and is the most contested in half a century.

"It's a risky strategy," said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. "It might even be more likely that things unfold in ways that are more familiar to us, and that people who do well in Iowa and New Hampshire will be catapulted to the front of the line."

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EDITOR'S NOTE _ Libby Quaid has covered Washington for The Associated Press since 1997.