An Eye Out for Hurricanes

Q. I'm looking for a warm place to go in late September/early October, which is hurricane season. Any (dry) ideas?

Kathleen Springer, Vienna

A. Let's let Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center put this thing in perspective. "Despite the devastation they can cause, hurricanes are fairly rare events," he says. "We get on average six per year, and they last for about a week. Your chance of being hit or even threatened . . . is really very tiny." How tiny? Just 1 to 2 percent, according to Landsea's calculations.

Even in a worst-case scenario in which, say, you took 50 one-week vacations to Puerto Rico (relatively hurricane-prone) in September (the busiest month for storms), you would probably get hit only once. In short, says Landsea, "if I got a chance to go to Barbados or Jamaica in September, I'd go."

The chances of encountering a hurricane "go up as you get closer to Florida and the Bahamas, also the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. As you get closer to the equator, ironically, the chances go down. Places like the A-B-C islands [Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao], Costa Rica or Panama get hit only once every 10 or 20 years. And south of 9 degrees latitude" -- Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, for instance -- "those places never get hit."

That said, you should keep up with conditions wherever you are in the Caribbean by logging on to the National Hurricane Center's Web site ( http://www.hurricanes.gov). And remember that every country in the area except Haiti now has its own national weather service.

We found a great nonstop fare between Dulles and Dublin. We'll have four days in Dublin before meeting our tour in Ennis. What is the best way for two senior citizens to get between Dublin and Ennis? Because of our age, renting a car is not feasible.

Joan Cassidy, Odenton

With the average price of gas in Ireland an even-steeper-than-stateside $6 a gallon, your age may be a blessing in disguise. And you needn't fear: The road from Dublin is far from a rocky one, thanks to Bus Eireann, the country's bus system, which boasts comfortable coaches rather akin to tourist buses here.

The trip to County Clare and Ennis takes about five hours and involves multiple stops. But there's good news, too: Round-trip fares are a relatively modest $33, and tickets for September may be booked now at 011-353-1-836-6111 or http://www.buseireann.ie. A quicker (three hours) if less cost-efficient option is the Irish rail system, Iarnrod Eireann, which travels between Dublin and Ennis up to eight times daily, with at least one change of train and sometimes two. (There is one direct train from Dublin to Ennis on Fridays.) Round-trip fares for standard reserved seats are $75 and can be reserved 28 days before departure at 011-353-1-703-4070 or http://www.irishrail.ie.

Finally, given the Emerald Isle's friendliness to OAPs (or "old age pensioners," a rather infelicitous term roughly synonymous with "seniors"), don't be shy about flashing that AARP card wherever you go. Although discounts are not available for foreigners on buses or trains, theaters and other entertainment venues frequently offer a special rate.

Postscript

Michael Rahn of McLean suggests a more straightforward route to Staten Island from New Jersey than the one described in the July 8 Postscript. Rahn says to take the Bayonne, Goethals or Outerbridge Crossing bridges.

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