Russia to Suspend Treaty Participation

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures speaking at a meeting with government members in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, in this file photo of Thursday, July 12, 2007. President Vladimir Putin signed a decree suspending Russia's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty Saturday July 14, 2007 due to "extraordinary circumstances ... which affect the security of the Russian Federation and require immediate measures," the Kremlin said in a statement. (AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Presidential Press Service, Vladimir Rodionov) (Vladimir Rodionov - AP)

Withdrawal from the treaty would allow Moscow to build up forces near its borders. But Russian military analysts have said Russia's move was a symbolic raising of the ante in the missile shield showdown more than a sign of impending military escalation.

Russian officials have strongly protested U.S. plans to build a radar site in the Czech Republic and missile interceptors in Poland, saying the U.S. system is aimed at its nuclear arsenal, and would upset the balance of strategic forces in Europe. The U.S. insists that the anti-missile system is aimed at future nuclear threats from Iran.

Alexander Golts, a respected military analyst with the online publication Yezhenedelny Zhurnal, said the moratorium probably won't result in any major buildup of heavy weaponry in European Russia, because the country faced no real military threat and plans no attack of its own.

"It doesn't make sense, and let's be frank, Russia has no resources for it," he said.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defense analyst, said the end of inspections and checks by NATO countries will be the primary consequence of the suspension for many European nations, which rely on the inspections to keep track of Russian deployments.

For the United States, the moratorium will mostly be a symbolic gesture, he said, since the U.S. has an extensive intelligence network that keeps close track of Russian forces.

But the suspension will still be seen as an unfriendly move in Washington and Europe, Felgenhauer said.

"This will be a major irritant," he said. "It will seriously spoil relations. The kind of soothing effect from the last summit with Putin and Bush will evaporate swiftly," he said referring to a summit between Putin and President Bush this month at the Bush family vacation home in Kennebunkport, Maine.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, said the Kremlin's move was a step toward asserting Russia's international resurgence.

He said that he expects the Kremlin to seek a reconsideration of all the treaties and agreements reached during and after the Soviet breakup, when Moscow was weak.

"It is a strategy to change Russia's positioning on the world arena," he said.

Sergei Markov, the Kremlin-connected head of the Moscow-based Institute for Political Research said the move to impose a moratorium on the CFE was the Kremlin's signal that Russia will not be bullied.

"There are people who don't want Russia getting up from its knees, who are pushing it back, who are saying 'You are weak, you lost,' but Russia is resisting that," he said.

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Associated Press Writer Douglas Birch contributed to this report.