Analysis: Russia-West Tension May Worsen

Russian President Vladimir Putin talks with the media in Staraya Terizmorga, 670km south-east of Moscow, Thursday, July 19, 2007. President Vladimir Putin hosted the leaders of Finland and Hungary on Thursday at an elaborate festival to celebrate Finno-Ugric culture. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze) (Misha Japaridze - AP)

MOSCOW -- The diplomatic struggle over Russia's refusal to extradite the man suspected in the poisoning death of a former KGB agent in London could hamper progress on an array of issues critical to the West.

After Britain ordered on Monday the expulsion of four Russian diplomats to pressure Moscow, Russia retaliated in kind against four British diplomats, suspended counter-terrorism cooperation with Britain, and probed the limits of British airspace with strategic bombers.

These moves, chillingly reminiscent of the Cold War, may only be a taste of what is to come.

"I hope we can still contain this crisis," Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Center told The Associated Press on Saturday.

As a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member, Russia is a critical player in many issues of international importance.

In the past week, Moscow managed to prevent a Security Council vote on the future status of Kosovo because it opposes a Western push for the Serbian province's independence.

There are also concerns that Russia could thwart efforts to halt conflict in the Darfur region of Sudan. The African nation is a major customer for Russian weaponry. And Moscow is also involved in efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian crisis.

Russia has the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, still controls the bulk of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, and has the means to deliver them worldwide.

The British-Russian diplomatic fight escalated over Britain's demand that Russia hand over Andrei Lugovoi, a former KGB officer. British prosecutors charged him on May 22 with the killing of Alexander Litvinenko, the former KGB officer turned Kremlin critic who was poisoned with the radioactive isotope polonium-210.

Trenin said the $14 billion in annual trade between Russia and Britain should act as a brake on both sides. So, too, he said, should the presence in London of many wealthy and influential Russians, who have made the British capital their second home.

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday dismissed the tensions as no more than a "mini-crisis," an irritant in relations between Russia and the West.

But so far neither Britain nor Russia show any sign of yielding.