Analysis: Russia-West Tension May Worsen

Russian President Vladimir Putin talks with the media in Staraya Terizmorga, 670km south-east of Moscow, Thursday, July 19, 2007. President Vladimir Putin hosted the leaders of Finland and Hungary on Thursday at an elaborate festival to celebrate Finno-Ugric culture. (AP Photo/Misha Japaridze) (Misha Japaridze - AP)

Russia has said its constitution does not permit the extradition of its citizens, and accused Britain of deliberately worsening relations.

A spokesman for Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain would continue to press Russia to hand over Lugovoi. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggested the U.S. would back London, asking for "the full cooperation of Russia."

Putin, meanwhile, is unlikely to extradite Lugovoi under any circumstances, Trenin said.

"To do that after everything that's happened would be a loss of face, which will be totally incomprehensible," he said.

Moscow has not said what halting bilateral cooperation on counter-terror measure means. Analysts say, though, that Russia has relatively little intelligence on terror groups that threaten Britain because Moscow's efforts are focused on fighting domestic militant groups in the Caucasus.

The conflict between Russia and the West goes far beyond the Litvinenko case.

The Kremlin has accused the U.S. of encouraging regime change in ex-Soviet states, in order to weaken and isolate Russia. U.S. insistence on building an anti-missile system in Central Europe has drawn ferocious opposition from Putin.

After Washington refused to alter its missile defense plans, Putin suspended participation in a landmark European arms control treaty July 14.

Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Moscow is at a critical point in its history, trying to decide what role to play in global affairs.

He said Russia stands between three "elephants:" Europe, with one of the world's strongest economies; China, with 1 billion people and rising industrial might; and the Islamic world, with its fast-growing population and religious militants.

"What is Russia going to do about these giants?" he said. "Russia must make a decision to join one of these camps."

Russia's logical choice is to join Europe, Kremenyuk said. But to do this, Russia will have to adopt a Western-style democratic system and fully open its markets, he added.

Russia's need to integrate with the West but its refusal to pay the price for such integration is the underlying cause of the current tensions, Kremenyuk said.