Shifting Migration Patterns Alter Portrait of Pr. George's

Prince George's, a county that underwent a seismic population shift a generation ago as it became the nation's wealthiest majority-black suburb, might be on the cusp of another demographic change.

In the past decade, Prince George's has become a destination for many working-class and foreign-born families because of its relatively affordable housing. At the same time, thousands of middle-class people, many of them African American, have left for neighboring counties in search of better schools, less crime and bigger houses.

The population swings -- documented in a recent report by the Brookings Institution and in census data -- have not made a significant difference in the overall socioeconomics of Prince George's, which has a population of 840,000. And county officials say a recent surge in commercial and residential development will continue to bring amenities that will attract affluent residents.

But the changes are visible in northern parts of the county, where several communities such as Bladensburg, Edmonston and Langley Park have become heavily Latino.

Also, the migration patterns are transforming several of Maryland's outer suburbs, notably Charles County. With 140,000 people, the county has one the nation's fastest-growing black populations, census data show.

The patterns detailed in the census data and the Brookings report confirm a trend suggested for years by anecdotal evidence: On the whole, upwardly mobile African American families who have left Prince George's for bordering suburbs are being replaced by people with lower incomes.

"It's quite common for urban economies to routinely lose many of their middle- and higher-income households and watch as they're replaced by newcomers that are less well-heeled," said Anirban Basu, a Baltimore-based economist who studies demographic trends.

But in Prince George's, it was middle-class black homeowners who transformed the county a generation ago as they replaced the working-class white residents moving out.

Certainly, affluent African American families continue to move to Prince George's, drawn by its vibrant culture, proximity to the District and status as a well-to-do black community. And many of the immigrant families arriving come with college degrees and professional careers. Each year, about 50,000 people move to the county, and about that many move out.

Overall, though, those moving in between 1993 and 2004 had consistently lower incomes than those who left, according to the Brookings report, which studied federal income tax data that had been adjusted for deductions.

The median adjusted incomes of all households moving into Prince George's ranged from $23,900 to $27,100, the report found. Figures for those moving out of the county ranged from $28,000 to $30,400. The incomes of those migrating to bordering counties in 2004 were even higher: $40,019 for Charles, $37,230 for Anne Arundel and $35,847 for Howard.

The report concludes that this trend "will only contribute to the economic disparities" between Prince George's and its more affluent neighbors. "To maintain its middle-class character and racial diversity, the county must consider ways to keep higher-income households from leaving."