By Philip Rucker and Avis Thomas-Lester
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Prince George's, a county that underwent a seismic population shift a generation ago as it became the nation's wealthiest majority-black suburb, might be on the cusp of another demographic change.
In the past decade, Prince George's has become a destination for many working-class and foreign-born families because of its relatively affordable housing. At the same time, thousands of middle-class people, many of them African American, have left for neighboring counties in search of better schools, less crime and bigger houses.
The population swings -- documented in a recent report by the Brookings Institution and in census data -- have not made a significant difference in the overall socioeconomics of Prince George's, which has a population of 840,000. And county officials say a recent surge in commercial and residential development will continue to bring amenities that will attract affluent residents.
But the changes are visible in northern parts of the county, where several communities such as Bladensburg, Edmonston and Langley Park have become heavily Latino.
Also, the migration patterns are transforming several of Maryland's outer suburbs, notably Charles County. With 140,000 people, the county has one the nation's fastest-growing black populations, census data show.
The patterns detailed in the census data and the Brookings report confirm a trend suggested for years by anecdotal evidence: On the whole, upwardly mobile African American families who have left Prince George's for bordering suburbs are being replaced by people with lower incomes.
"It's quite common for urban economies to routinely lose many of their middle- and higher-income households and watch as they're replaced by newcomers that are less well-heeled," said Anirban Basu, a Baltimore-based economist who studies demographic trends.
But in Prince George's, it was middle-class black homeowners who transformed the county a generation ago as they replaced the working-class white residents moving out.
Certainly, affluent African American families continue to move to Prince George's, drawn by its vibrant culture, proximity to the District and status as a well-to-do black community. And many of the immigrant families arriving come with college degrees and professional careers. Each year, about 50,000 people move to the county, and about that many move out.
Overall, though, those moving in between 1993 and 2004 had consistently lower incomes than those who left, according to the Brookings report, which studied federal income tax data that had been adjusted for deductions.
The median adjusted incomes of all households moving into Prince George's ranged from $23,900 to $27,100, the report found. Figures for those moving out of the county ranged from $28,000 to $30,400. The incomes of those migrating to bordering counties in 2004 were even higher: $40,019 for Charles, $37,230 for Anne Arundel and $35,847 for Howard.
The report concludes that this trend "will only contribute to the economic disparities" between Prince George's and its more affluent neighbors. "To maintain its middle-class character and racial diversity, the county must consider ways to keep higher-income households from leaving."
Prince George's officials who have read the report seem unfazed.
"We in the county leadership say the out-migration of . . . people is inconsequential compared to what is going to happen and where this county is going," said David J. Byrd, an administrator responsible for economic development.
Rising along the Potomac River is National Harbor, a $2 billion retail and tourism development and one of the most ambitious projects on the East Coast.
Billions more are being spent elsewhere in the county, where the cost of a new home can start in the $700,000s. Hyattsville is being transformed into an arts district, and major retail projects are planned in Landover, Laurel and Glenarden.
The county's chief prosecutor, Glenn F. Ivey (D), is among those who think economic development is solid in Prince George's, particularly in terms of the availability of buildable land. Right now, he said, the county "is the best game in the region."
The county government commissioned a study last year that estimated average household income will increase by about 12 percent from 2005 to 2010.
"We don't see a trend -- not from the amount of new construction -- that you're seeing an exodus of any group of people coming into or out of the county," said Jim Keary, spokesman for County Executive Jack B. Johnson (D).
A Middle-Class DestinationAs people are leaving Prince George's and others are moving in, the county is becoming firmly established as a path to the middle class.
The Brookings report found that those moving to the county -- many from Montgomery County and the District -- are more likely to be foreign-born than those leaving. Census data show that the proportion of the county's population that is foreign born grew from 13.8 percent in 2000 to 18.7 percent in 2005, and many of these new residents are Hispanics and African nationals.
The concentration of Latinos, particularly Salvadorans and Guatemalans, is changing the faces of some of the county's northern communities, as it has changed others in the region. In Edmonston, a town of 1,300 about two miles past the District line, the Hispanic population is poised to overtake the black population, census data show.
Historic North Brentwood has been a mostly black hamlet since it was settled by African American Civil War troops, but it has become 25 percent Hispanic.
Meanwhile, African nationals, many from Nigeria and Ghana, are moving to communities across the county. Larry Akinlosotu opened a real estate company in Lanham four years ago to serve the influx of people from Africa. Today, he has about 60 agents.
Akinlosotu said Prince George's is a favored destination because of the many churches and businesses that cater to African clientele.
"I think in the beginning it was the prices of homes that attracted them," Akinlosotu said. "Then, when you look at the amenities and the location and its proximity to the city, that is also attractive."
The Prince George's government has established programs to welcome immigrants and encourage entrepreneurial development, Byrd said. The county has African and Hispanic chambers of commerce, he said, along with more traditional business organizations.
Those are the kinds of amenities that are drawing working-class people to Prince George's, where relatively affordable real estate gives them a chance to buy a home, a key step into the middle class.
Salvadoran native Sonia Mercado was living in an apartment in Northwest Washington last year when she started looking for a house for herself and her 8-year-old daughter, Giselle.
Homes in the District, where she'd lived since arriving in the United States 11 years ago, were out of reach. She had no better luck in Arlington County, where she works cleaning office buildings. So when a real estate agent showed her an affordable two-bedroom, two-bath condominium near a good school in College Park, she snapped it up.
"The prices were much better in Prince George's County," Mercado, 29, said. "My condo is nicer than what I would have been able to get in those places."
The Ripple EffectsMigration patterns are also changing the region's frontier. In Anne Arundel and Howard counties, the black population has increased slightly since 2000, as have the median household incomes.
The changes in Charles are more dramatic. In 1990, the county's population was 18 percent African American. By 2000, it was 25 percent, and by 2005, 34 percent.
Charles is also becoming more affluent. Between 2000 and 2005, the median household income rose from $62,199 to $69,573, and the number of households making six figures nearly doubled, census data show.
"Charles County, from an economic perspective, represents a suburb of Prince George's County just as Prince George's County is a suburb of Washington, D.C.," Basu said. "That is where they find the greener pastures, the lower density, the rustic lifestyle, the cleaner air and so on."
Jennifer Walker, a real estate agent who is black, recently moved from Upper Marlboro to Waldorf because she wanted a safer environment for her four children, ages 6 to 17.
She said she hopes to pull them out of the private Christian school they attend in Bowie and enroll them in Charles's public schools.
Standing on the steps of her new home on a cul-de-sac off a two-lane country road, Walker said she loves her new community. "This is a breath of fresh air," she said.
Staff researcher Meg Smith contributed to this report.
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