By Ed Koch
Sunday, August 5, 2007; B01

Will he or won't he?

He will.

I believe that at the end of this year or in early 2008, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will announce that he's running for president.

I have no inside sources. I am not a close personal friend of the mayor's. My soothsaying is simply based on many years of experience in running for public office, helping others run and watching political campaigns from the sidelines. And even from the sidelines, it's obvious that Bloomberg is doing everything a pro would do to prepare for a national run.

He is everywhere, a true bicoastal man. His media coverage -- the lifeblood of politics -- has been phenomenal. Better yet, he has been a terrific leader, showing real bravery in dealing with the fallout from 9/11, improving New York schools, driving down major crime by 30 percent and slashing the deficit left by Rudy Giuliani's second-term spending spree.

In fact, Bloomberg's approach is a far cry from that of the combative Giuliani, whom national audiences are just starting to truly get to know. A comparison of Bloomberg's terms in office and accomplishments with Rudy's would unsettle Giuliani -- just look at those crime rates. Some portray Bloomberg's approach to government as that of a technocrat. Others use the terms businessman or CEO. I prefer a different description: "governs with common sense." That would be a pleasant change in Washington, just as it has been in New York.

But Bloomberg brought more than managerial talent to City Hall: Current estimates of his wealth are in the neighborhood of $15 billion -- a very nice neighborhood indeed. With a bankroll like that, candidate Bloomberg wouldn't have to beg or borrow campaign money, public or private. He has financed his political career from petty cash. In his first run for mayor, he spent $74 million; when he ran for his second term, he spent $85 million.

Money like that buys a lot of exposure. In his first campaign, he was barely known to most voters. But lavish spending on TV commercials brought his ideas to the public. In a Democratic town, where Republicans have to work hard to win public office, his margin of victory was an unexpected 2 percent.

Some observers say that Mayor Mike was just lucky in 2001, claiming that his Democratic opponent, Mark Green, lost the election, not that Bloomberg won it. They also claim that the trauma of 9/11 and Bloomberg's endorsement by Giuliani -- widely regarded as a hero in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks -- put him in office. But Bloomberg's 2005 run for reelection convinced the doubters. He campaigned like a rock star, winning with a landslide 19 percent over Democrat Fernando Ferrer, a well-liked and well-known Bronx politician. Bloomberg's electoral triumph is all the more impressive because it took place in a city that is nearly two-thirds black and Hispanic and has a substantial number of "progressive" whites who view themselves as more radical than liberals. And yet the billionaire Republican won in a walk. That bodes pretty well for a national run.

I was part of both Bloomberg campaigns. (Truth in packaging: I appear weekly on Bloomberg Radio as a paid commentator.) After the 2001 primaries, I got a call from his closest campaign adviser, Patricia E. Harris, who's now first deputy mayor. She had joined my administration in 1978 when she was 22 and served superbly as my assistant and as executive director of the Art Commission. Patti asked if I would consider endorsing Mike. Having just backed Ferrer in the Democratic primaries only to see him lose to Green, I wasn't thrilled. "I've already had a loser," I told her. "I don't need another. He's 14 points behind," with just two weeks before the election. "Well, can we stay in touch?" Patti asked. Thinking her cause was hopeless but trying to be nice, I said yes.

A week later, Patti called again. "Mike is down only four points!" she said. "I'm in," I replied.

Bloomberg's rise in the polls was the result of a very well-run campaign. There is no question that one key to his surprising victory was the endorsement he received from Giuliani. And I believe my endorsement, as a recent Democratic mayor, helped as well. I endorsed him again in 2005, and I've never regretted it.

Once in office, Bloomberg revealed a style that was totally different than mine and Giuliani's. Rudy and I are often described as outspoken, bigger than life. Now I can't speak for Rudy, but I am by nature a retiring personality, even shy. But you've got to step up. When I took office in 1978, the city had a crushing $6 billion short-term debt. "If you follow me, I will lead you across the desert," I would brazenly tell the people of New York. I did ultimately bring fiscal stability, restoring the city's bonds to an investment-grade rating and, most important, helping the people of our five boroughs to once again feel proud to be New Yorkers.

Bloomberg arrived at City Hall in a fiscal situation somewhat similar to mine, along with simmering resentments left by Giuliani and the awful damage of 9/11, but he handled it all very differently. He did not cheerlead or exhibit an oversize personality. He was very restrained -- almost too restrained. Most people knew he was a rich businessman, but he seemed to be a regular guy. (A regular guy, that is, who happened to have a huge townhouse on East 79th Street, a blockbuster business, a radio and television station, houses around the country and the world, and his own plane to fly him wherever he wanted to go. Plus, he's a licensed helicopter pilot.)

With his low-key personality, Bloomberg was able to do something that every mayor before wanted to do but was unable. He lowered -- one could even say eliminated -- racial tensions in New York. Most mayors have had to grapple with occasional racial and ethnic incidents, generally involving the cops and a black or Hispanic New Yorker, which lead to charges of police brutality and racial discrimination and rounds of recriminations and invective hurled at the mayor. Not so for Bloomberg.

Why has he thus far escaped the racial confrontations that plagued his predecessors? I believe we can trace it back to his earliest days in office, when one morning, while walking up the steps of City Hall, he saw the Rev. Al Sharpton walking down the steps. Mayor Mike walked over to him, extended his hand and introduced himself.

No big deal? Maybe. But remember, Giuliani was incapable of such gestures. Bloomberg, with his lack of theatricality and his genuine interest in finding the root of a problem and solving it, has brought a racial peace that any city in the country would envy. Under Giuliani, when the two highest-ranking elected black officials in New York, State Comptroller H. Carl McCall and Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, asked to meet with the mayor, he refused. A year went by, and still nothing. "Rudy, why won't you meet with them?" I asked. "Because I don't agree with them," he told me. "You only meet with people you agree with?" I replied. "That's crazy." And it is.

Giuliani might be a very familiar type of president. Bloomberg would be something quite different. He would bring to the White House that same businesslike, problem-solving approach, that same low-key personality, that same comfortable-in-his-skin tranquility -- all leavened by a nicely dry sense of humor.

One question remains: Would he actually live in the White House? In New York, Bloomberg chose not to live in the mayor's house, Gracie Mansion, a beautiful, historic home on the East River. To this day, he remains in his own $17 million home, which puts most mansions to shame. I find it strange that he did not then follow the example of Mayor Jimmy Walker during the Jazz Age and have the lamps that traditionally identify a mayor's house installed on the street in front of his building. Walker's lamps are still there today at 6 St. Luke's Place. But there are no mayoral lamps for Mayor (er, candidate?) Mike.

eikoch@bryancave.com

Ed Koch, a Democrat, was mayor

of New York from 1978 to 1989.

He is a partner in Bryan Cave LLP.