Iowa Republicans Are Not Thrilled With Presidential Field

Their absence has raised the stakes for Romney and has given hope to some of those in the lower tiers of the GOP race that a surprisingly good showing could give their campaigns needed momentum. The history of the straw polls, however, is that they often produce political casualties, sometimes within days of the results.

The portrait of the Iowa Republican electorate that emerges from the new Post-ABC News poll is strikingly different from what came out of a parallel poll of Iowa Democrats taken at the same time. Both polls measured attitudes of likely participants in Iowa's precinct caucuses, the first event on the nomination calendar in January.

The polls surveyed attitudes of party activists, a small percentage of the overall electorate, but those most likely to come out on a cold January night and spend hours with neighbors in living rooms, church basements and other venues debating and then voting for their favored candidates.

Among both Republicans and Democrats, nine in 10 Iowa voters said they are paying close attention to the race. Republicans, like Democrats, are already engaged in the intense caucus-organizing efforts of the campaigns. More than six in 10 Republicans said they have already been called by at least one of the campaigns; 71 percent of Democrats said they have been contacted on the phone.

The similarities end there. Fifty-three percent of Democrats said they are very satisfied with the field of candidates, compared with the one-in-five likely Republican caucus-goers who described themselves as very satisfied. While eight in 10 Republican voters said the Iraq war was worth fighting, nine in 10 Democratic voters said it was not.

Half of the Democratic voters polled said they are looking for a candidate who emphasizes fresh ideas and a new direction. But seven in 10 Republican voters said they prize strength and experience over new ideas in their candidate selection.

A further sign of instability in the Republican race that emerges from the survey is the diversity of opinion on key candidate attributes. By a wide margin, Romney is seen as the candidate who has campaigned the hardest in Iowa, but on most other factors, many of the candidates remain under consideration. For example, asked which candidate is the most honest and trustworthy, 21 percent identified Romney, 11 percent Fred Thompson, 10 percent each naming McCain and Huckabee, with two others at 7 percent.

When voters were asked to rate the candidates on various attributes, Romney emerged as the clear choice on only one measure. Forty-nine percent said he had campaigned the hardest in Iowa. He had narrower advantages over Giuliani on which candidate "best understands the problems of people like you" and which candidate is "closest to you on the issues." In each case, however, he was cited as tops by fewer than a quarter of Iowa Republicans.

Republicans were fragmented on many other political and personal characteristics. They divided between Giuliani and Romney as to who is the strongest leader, closely divided among Giuliani, Romney and McCain on who is best experienced, split between Giuliani and Romney on who has the best chance to win the general election, and relatively closely divided among McCain, Giuliani and Romney on who can best deal with Iraq.

McCain's advocacy of President Bush's troop buildup policy has not translated into political support in Iowa. Among those who strongly support the decision to fight the war, he received 5 percent.

Fred Thompson was rated third- or fourth-best on most attributes, generally at about 10 percent. That suggests his allure as a potentially serious candidate is based as much, or more, on dissatisfaction with the rest of the field as it is on specific knowledge about Thompson or his record.

Huckabee and Brownback, two of the most socially conservative candidates in the field, have engaged in occasionally vituperative competition for support among evangelical Christians in Iowa. The poll shows Huckabee has made greater inroads.

Romney led among evangelical Protestants with a quarter of the vote, with Huckabee second at 17 percent, followed by Fred Thompson, Giuliani and McCain, all hovering near 10 percent. Brownback and Tancredo received 7 percent each among evangelicals.

Huckabee is an appealing candidate to many evangelicals. One in five said that he is closest to them on the issues, and the same percentage said that he is the candidate who best understands their problems and that he is the most honest and trustworthy in the Republican field.

Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.