Musharraf's Own Inaction Brought On Crisis, Observers Say

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Gen. Pervez Musharraf is a man accustomed to getting his way, and for nearly eight years as this country's formidably powerful ruler, he almost always has.

But on March 9, his fortunes abruptly changed when the country's chief justice refused to resign under government pressure.

Musharraf has gone on to endure a spectacular series of disappointments that have left him isolated from his friends and dependent on his enemies if he wants to stay in office. With his country in turmoil, caught between democracy and autocracy, between radical Islam and secular moderation, the nation's president and army chief is locked in a struggle just to survive.

Critics -- and, increasingly, supporters -- say Musharraf has only himself to blame. His habit of postponing tough decisions, they say, has finally caught up with him.

"The situation is going from bad to worse for Pervez Musharraf," said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst. "And the pressures are only increasing."

At the moment, those pressures include an invigorated insurgency by al-Qaeda and Taliban militants who have vowed to oust Musharraf in favor of a hard-line theocracy. From the other direction, he faces an energetic pro-democracy movement that is itching for the chance to send Musharraf and his fellow generals back to their barracks. And from the United States, he faces growing doubts that he is up to the task of eliminating alleged terrorist havens on Pakistani soil.

The conflicting pressures are taking their toll. In four months, Musharraf's approval rating in Pakistan dropped 20 points, down to 34 percent as of early July, according to an opinion poll released last week by the International Republican Institute, a U.S. government-funded nonprofit that promotes democracy around the world. It was the first time since the survey was first conducted in 2002 that the percentage of Pakistani respondents approving of Musharraf had fallen below half.

The former commando prides himself on an ability to escape difficult circumstances, and it is possible he will find a way to emerge this time as well. At the moment, his hope for salvation comes from an unexpected source. He traveled to the United Arab Emirates recently to meet with a longtime nemesis, former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, and those close to him say agreeing to share power with her might be his best option for political survival.

Even that is fraught with risk. Musharraf, who came to power in a military coup in 1999, is up for reelection by Parliament this fall, and if the deal with Bhutto collapses at the last minute, it is unclear whether he will have the necessary support to win another term.

If the deal does go through, he faces the prospect of trying to govern with a woman he has decried as "corrupt" and representative of the "sham democracy" that preceded his tenure.

For her part, Bhutto has repeatedly called Musharraf "a military dictator" and has pointedly said she will not ink any deal unless he resigns as army chief. Musharraf's supporters say he probably will have to, even though his status in the army is seen as his primary source of influence.

"I would expect that around New Year's Day, you'll see General Pervez Musharraf transformed into Mr. Pervez Musharraf, with a designer suit rather than the khaki uniform he has worn for the past 43 years," said Mushahid Hussain, a top leader in Musharraf's party.