The Art of the Campaign

McCain, meanwhile, has made several ill-fated gambles in recent months: that although the election will be about Iraq, it will also be about staying the course and winning; and that although immigration is a sticky issue with Republican voters, the Arizona senator would be rewarded for sticking to his unpopular principles. Neither bet has so far proven right, and McCain is dragging miserably in the polls.

Or could the election wind up being about something unexpected that happens between now and next summer? After all, with the ever-shifting campaign calendar, the parties' nominees may have nearly a year to compete before Election Day 2008 -- a span of time in which any number of events could shake the political landscape, from another terrorist attack on U.S. soil to a crumbling stock market to worsening chaos on the ground in Iraq to an international cataclysm still unforeseen. In presidential politics, candidates are even taught to expect such unexpecteds, known universally as the "October surprise."

Or could 2008 just turn out to be yet another personality-driven campaign, about which candidate voters would like to have a beer with -- or watch on television?

For all the serious issues at hand, the race's celebrity lineup so far suggests that the latter could still occur. Giuliani has rocketed to the top of the Republican field more for his 9/11 fame than for his other accomplishments. Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator, is rising in the polls more because of his starring role on NBC's "Law and Order" than for his record in the Senate. Clinton, of course, is perhaps the most famous woman in the world. And Obama is an international celebrity in his own right, chased by paparazzi, photographed in his swim trunks and scrutinized as much for style as for substance. Which might mean that 2008 could prove to be a sort of "Curb Your Enthusiasm" election -- a sequel campaign, in the image of the HBO show that followed "Seinfeld," which is not so much about nothing as it is about celebrity.

kornbluta@washpost.com

Anne E. Kornblut is a political reporter for The Post.