Is It Too Late for the Late Show?

"If he gives a good speech, if it's well received in the media, if there's a lot of buzz, he's off to the races," said Alex Vogel, a Republican consultant who was a top aide to former senator Bill Frist (Tenn.).

But the timing of the announcement is now tricky, said several Republicans who have held senior posts on presidential campaigns. They said Thompson must announce before mid-September, when Gen. David H. Petraeus presents his assessment of the Iraq war to Congress.

"The secret to one of these announcements is to dominate the terms of the debate for five or six days," said Scott Reed, who managed Sen. Robert J. Dole's campaign in 1996. "He needs to properly introduce himself."

Aides to Thompson have been debating for weeks the best timing for the announcement. There was talk about holding a rally in Nashville the day after Labor Day, but one source said the campaign is concerned about being able to generate a large crowd that day.

The next day, Fox News is hosting a debate in New Hampshire. So far, Thompson has not committed to participating. The campaign could launch on the Saturday after Labor Day, giving Thompson a week to travel the country before discussion of the Iraq report begins.

Once he announces, Thompson and his team will have to compete with the well-established, highly organized operations set up by Romney and Giuliani. They have built sophisticated organizations with growing staffs in many of the early-voting states.

By contrast, Thompson has been constrained legally by his "testing the waters" status. His rivals have a significant head start over him, and his headquarters staff has already been through one reorganization. His travel schedule has been leisurely, compared with the others.

Reed said that Thompson needs to confront three main concerns about him: that he can't compete in the important primary states; that he's not a solid conservative; and that he is too lazy for a presidential run. "The pictures, the message, and the mechanics need to be in place for him to mount a serious effort for the nomination," Reed said. "If he's really going to super-charge this campaign, he's going to have to have some bold ideas."

"Most, if not all, of the top activists and operatives are gone, so they're going to have to run a personality- and issues-based campaign," said John Weaver, until recently a senior adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). That approach, Weaver said, "is going to require some innovative campaign tactics and a lot of energy from the candidate."

Shear reported from Washington.