Permanent Republican Majority? Think Again.

Didn't work.

Today, independents are much more in sync with Democrats than with Republicans on both domestic and international issues. One example: We see a striking increase in independents' support for more government help for the needy, even if it means going deeper into debt. Fully 57 percent of independents endorse this idea today; in 1994, just 39 percent did.

In the 2004 presidential election, independents split their votes fairly evenly between Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts; in the 2006 midterms, they swung decisively to the Democrats -- by 57 to 39 percent -- to propel the party to control of Congress.

So what accounts for changes of this magnitude? Throughout history, they've often represented a response to poor governing as much as any basic ideological shift. In the 1960s, Americans grew exasperated with Johnson's failures with the Great Society and the Vietnam War. The electorate reacted by giving Republican Richard M. Nixon two terms in the White House, at a time when a majority of voters were Democrats. When Carter failed to resolve the nation's deep economic problems and to free U.S. hostages in Iran, the public responded by turning him out of office in favor of a Republican whom they viewed as more conservative than themselves.

The Bush administration's reputation for competent management has taken a beating over the past two years. It's not just the war in Iraq: Domestic failures such as various GOP scandals and the response to Hurricane Katrina, as well as political miscalculations on issues such as Social Security and immigration reform, haven't helped.

But though the GOP may be in trouble, the Democrats' gains aren't necessarily the result of any shining achievements on their part. The Democratic Party's image is no better today than it was shortly after Bush's reelection -- or, for that matter, than it was after the GOP victory in '94. Democrats are perceived favorably by 51 percent of Americans today, compared with 53 percent in December 2004 and 50 percent a decade earlier. The Republican Party's image, on the other hand, has plummeted -- from 67 percent favoring it in December 1994 to 39 percent last month.

What will emerge from the end of the conservative era? It depends on two things. First, who wins the White House in 2008. The Democrats have the advantage, but it's no guarantee of victory. It's just a big head start. Second, if they win, they'll have to prove successful in addressing voter discontent on a variety of fronts -- Iraq, health care, income inequality and other domestic issues.

Ronald Reagan's administration gained public acceptance for its conservative ideas about the size and role of government only when it showed progress in dealing with the nation's pressing economic problems. Its political stock remained low for the first three years of Reagan's presidency, until the economy righted itself and Morning in America was formally declared.

Recent history is full of examples of presidents and political parties overreaching in reaction to a change in the public's political values. Though the public was moving in a more conservative direction in the early '90s, it had little appetite for the more radical proposals the GOP promoted after taking power, such as shutting down the Department of Education. House Speaker Newt Gingrich slowed the Republican momentum in 1995 by pushing his agenda too hard, too fast.

This is a lesson the Democrats should take to heart. Change is headed in their direction, but a new Democratic era will emerge only if a potential Democratic administration shows successful leadership and real achievements.

andrew.kohut@pewresearch.org

carroll.doherty@pewresearch.org

Andrew Kohut is president of the Pew Research Center. Carroll Doherty is associate director of the center's People and the Press polling unit.