Warner Calls for Pullouts By Winter

The declassified key judgments of the NIE released yesterday echoed Warner's judgment on Maliki but warned of the consequences of pulling out troops in the short term. Although Iraqi security forces have "performed adequately," they have "not improved enough to conduct major operations" in multiple locations over time without U.S. help, the report said. Scaling back the U.S. mission to supporting Iraqi forces and hunting al-Qaeda in Iraq, as many Democrats and some Republicans have advocated, "would erode security gains achieved thus far," it added.

On the other hand, if U.S. forces continue their current strategy, the report predicted, security "will continue to improve modestly" over the next six to 12 months, though violence will remain high and political accord will remain elusive. The intelligence analysts were scathing in their judgment of Maliki's government, saying that political progress has "stalled" and that a leadership void has increased the prime minister's "vulnerability" to being toppled. Broad political compromise is "unlikely to emerge unless there is a fundamental shift" in Iraq.

Maliki's Shiite-led government has fractured through resignations and boycotts. He has proved unable or unwilling to institute measures demanded by Washington to govern distribution of oil proceeds, hold provincial elections and welcome lower-level members of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led Baath Party back into government. The main factor saving Maliki at this point, the NIE said, is the belief among fellow Shiite leaders that agreeing on a replacement "could paralyze the government," much as it did for the five months it took to choose him in the first place last year. That is a major reason Bush is standing behind Maliki for now, too, aides have said.

The NIE, released by Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, is the first such assessment to focus on Iraq since January. It notes the new alliances between U.S. forces and Sunni Arab tribal leaders against al-Qaeda in Iraq, describing such "bottom-up" developments as "the best prospect for improved security." But it also says that such deals must translate into wider accommodation and "could pose risks to the Iraqi Government" by arming a sectarian minority.

Democrats said the intelligence assessment undergirds their desire to end U.S. involvement in the war and effectively demonstrates that Bush's strategy of boosting troop levels to create space for political agreement has failed.

"As today's NIE makes clear, a political solution is extremely unlikely in the near term," said Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.). "Further pursuit of the administration's flawed escalation strategy is not in our nation's best interests."

The White House said more time is needed. "It is frustrating, but it's not surprising that the political reconciliation is lagging behind the security improvements," Johndroe said. "I think that is the way the strategy was laid out."

The NIE is only one of several reports on Iraq in the weeks leading up to Petraeus's return. The Government Accountability Office late next week will deliver its assessment of the Iraqi government's performance on the 18 benchmarks for success. House leaders, in a conference call with much of the Democratic caucus yesterday, set hearings for Sept. 4 on the GAO's findings. Another report on the security situation in Iraq, overseen by former Marine commandant James L. Jones, should be delivered by the first week of September.