Kerrey's Happy Outside the Senate, but . . .

By Chris Cillizza And Shailagh Murray
Sunday, August 26, 2007

Former senator Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) seems to be creeping ever closer to a Senate race in 2008, telling the board of trustees at the New School -- where he serves as president -- that a candidacy is a possibility.

"I am happy and do not pine to return to the Senate," Kerrey told The Fix late last week. "However, I am worried about the direction of the country and feel I might be able to help. It's personal happiness [versus] public service."

After spending a term as Nebraska's governor from 1983 to 1987, Kerrey was elected to the Senate in 1988, trouncing appointed Sen. David Karnes (R).

Four years later, Kerrey ran for president but dropped out after disappointing performances in New Hampshire and in a series of Western states.

Kerrey weighed another run for president in 2000 but ultimately decided to walk away from politics, retiring from the Senate and taking the job at the New School in New York City.

Since then, Kerrey has seemed content to live the life of a private citizen, away from the hurly-burly of electoral politics. But the old itch appears to be back -- perhaps spurred by his desire to bring to bear his military experience (he was awarded the Medal of Honor for his service in Vietnam) on the debate over what to do next in Iraq.

Kerrey seems convinced that Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) has decided against running for a third term in 2008, creating an open seat and a golden opportunity for the Democrat's return to Washington. Kerrey has spoken with Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) about the possibility and would probably have the right of first refusal among Democrats; "I was flattered that Senator Reid wants me to run," Kerrey said of those conversations. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey is also interested but would almost certainly defer if the former senator wanted back in.

Republicans want U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, as their candidate but will be hard-pressed to persuade state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who is already running against Hagel, to drop out of the primary.

A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle. Kerrey said he will make a decision on the day Hagel announces his own intentions. Political junkies wait with bated breath.

Courting the Governors

Endorsements in a presidential race are typically of limited importance. Winning the backing of a senator, a House member or a powerful local official makes for a nice news release or campaign rally, but its lasting effects are decidedly limited.

Not so with governors' endorsements, however. The chief executives have active statewide political and fundraising machines and can serve as powerful surrogates for a candidate looking to prove his or her ability to get things done.

Need evidence? Look no further than then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush, who lined up the support of a majority of Republican governors in the early months of 1999 -- a gambit that secured his status as the front-runner in the race.

No 2008 candidate of either party has been able to duplicate Bush's success in courting governors.

Among the Republicans, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) used his early front-runner's glow to lure Govs. Jon Huntsman Jr. (Utah), Tim Pawlenty (Minn.) and Mitch Daniels (Ind.) into the fold, but those endorsements may not matter much now as McCain faces huge financial and organizational struggles.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has recruited two of his former colleagues -- Govs. Matt Blunt (Mo.) and Don Carcieri (R.I.). Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has Gov. Mike Rounds (S.D.) on board.

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and former senator Fred Thompson (Tenn.) have an equal number of gubernatorial endorsements: zero.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) leads the way with four governors: Eliot Spitzer (N.Y.), Jon Corzine (N.J.), Mike Beebe (Ark.) and Martin O'Malley (Md.).

And Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) has the backing of Gov. Tim Kaine (Va.). No other Democrats have garnered governors' endorsements.

Who are the big free agents among the nation's governors?

For Republicans, that conversation starts with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Calif.), who would bring his celebrity status -- not to mention a massive fundraising network -- to whichever candidate he chose. Gov. Charlie Crist (Fla.) would be another big get, given the Sunshine State's primacy in the primary process and the number of affluent donors in the state.

Among Democrats, landing Gov. Chet Culver (Iowa) or Gov. John Lynch (N.H.) would be a huge boost for a candidate, but neither seems likely to endorse. Look for Gov. Brian Schweitzer (Mont.) to emerge as a coveted commodity -- he is seen by many as the face of the reemergence of Democrats in the West.

PLAY ERS

Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) is getting more and more serious about a statewide run if and when Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) decides against seeking a sixth term. The latest sign? Davis has recruited his longtime political capo, John Hishta, away from a lucrative consulting job in order to organize for a potential Senate bid. Hishta and Davis go back a long way: Hishta managed Davis's first race for chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors in 1991. In the 2002 cycle, Hishta served as the executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which Davis was chairing at the time. "I have enjoyed working with Congressman Davis over the years and look forward to continuing to help him as he ponders his future options," said Hishta of his new position. Davis is clearly getting his A-team ready for the race. Does he know something about Warner's planned announcement next month that we don't?