Fewer Travelers in Pleasant Weekend Forecast

With sunny skies, low humidity and highs in the mid-80s expected across the mid-Atlantic region this holiday weekend, meteorologists are delivering a seemingly perfect forecast for the big Labor Day getaway.

But the traditional end-of-summer vacation weekend might not be such a big getaway after all. Earlier start dates at schools and colleges nationwide, constraints on household budgets and volatility in the housing market have persuaded many people to stay home, travel industry officials said.

Forecasters are predicting a lackluster travel weekend, with fewer Washington area residents expected to travel than at this time last year. About 527,000 residents are expected to go more than 50 miles this weekend -- including about 445,000 who will drive and about 80,000 who will fly, according to AAA Mid-Atlantic.

"That's down from last year slightly," said AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesman John Townsend. "What we're seeing is the changing face of Labor Day. Traditionally, people saw it as the last weekend of summer. . . . But I think people are worried about their financial future."

Still, transportation officials in Maryland, Virginia and the District are bracing for heavy traffic, particularly today and Monday on interstates and at major crossings such as the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. D.C. officials said the reopened Frederick Douglass Bridge over the Anacostia River will be a welcome relief for motorists.

"For anybody traveling, the advice is always leave early, and if you can delay coming back a day, that is always helpful," said Joan Morris, a Virginia Department of Transportation spokeswoman.

All scheduled road work in Maryland, Virginia and the District will be suspended for the holiday weekend, transportation officials said.

Metro is anticipating extremely light ridership: Three Orange Line stops -- Cheverly, Landover and New Carrollton -- will close beginning at 10 p.m. tonight so that repairs can be made at the Cheverly Station, spokesman Steven Taubenkibel said. The stations are scheduled to reopen Tuesday at 5 a.m.

Gasoline in the Washington area is averaging $2.68 a gallon for self-serve regular, about 20 cents a gallon less than at this time last year, according to AAA Mid-Atlantic. Yet the number of area residents expected to drive long distances is down about 1.5 percent, Townsend said.

Forecasts are modest partly because an evolving school calendar has interrupted the traditional Labor Day weekend family vacation, travel industry experts said. Many more college students are returning to campus in late August. Public schools in Maryland and the District have resumed classes. In Virginia, school starts Tuesday.

"The school season starting early has an effect on all of tourism, especially domestic," said Robert E. Whitley, president of the U.S. Tour Operators Association.

Labor Day trends might not harm the overall tourism industry. "Even if there is a theory that Labor Day is slowly dying, this year could be hard to tell," said Bill Carroll, tourism professor at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration. "The general industry in hotels is seeing some of the best growth they've ever seen and the highest occupancy rates they've ever seen."

The "big monkey wrench" in some vacation plans is unease about the economy, Townsend said.

"The turmoil on Wall Street, the upheaval in the housing market, the foreclosures -- that's the 800-pound gorilla lurking in the back of the room and lurking in the back of everybody's mind," Townsend said.

Tim Ridgely, 67, of Cheltenham said financial worries prompted him to alter his vacation plans.

"We had planned to go to the Outer Banks, but the good old price of gasoline is slowing us down," Ridgely said yesterday as he pumped regular unleaded (at $2.56 a gallon) into his Mercury Grand Marquis.

Gas prices won't keep him from hitting the beach with his wife. In lieu of North Carolina, the couple will make the shorter trek to Assateague Island on the Eastern Shore. They'll leave early this morning -- to beat traffic on the Bay Bridge.