GOP Faces Growing Peril In 2008 Races
Sunday, September 2, 2007
A Senate electoral playing field that was already wide open for 2008 has become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and the resignation of scandal-scarred Sen. Larry E. Craig (R-Idaho).
Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to take back control of the Senate, but they have 22 seats to defend, and campaign cash is conspicuously lacking. Warner's retirement raised to two the number of open Republican seats, and both of them -- in Virginia and Colorado -- are prime targets for Democrats.
With former Democratic senator Bob Kerrey possibly waiting in the wings, Republicans are anxiously watching to see whether Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) will retire. And two more Republican seats open for reelection -- in Wyoming and Idaho -- would be occupied by unelected appointees, John Barrasso and Craig's replacement.
"The state of the playing field looks very good, even in places where we didn't expect it to look good, even in deeply red states," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "Things could change, but if you did a snapshot, we're going to have a good year."
"It's always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker," said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.
To be sure, last week's events will not necessarily change the terrain that much, if the Republicans get a little lucky.
Former congressman Larry LaRocco, the Democrat campaigning hard for the Idaho senatorial seat, garnered just 40 percent of the vote last year against Republican James E. Risch in the race to be Idaho's lieutenant governor. Now, according to congressional Republican aides, Idaho Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) is leaning toward naming Risch to succeed Craig. A Risch-LaRocco battle next year would be a rematch for a different prize. Democrats hope that the pall of Craig's resignation would sully all Republicans, but analysts are skeptical.
"We're not worried about that state," said Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "I don't think that expands anything for us."
Virginia would be a very different story -- if Schumer can coax former governor Mark R. Warner (D) into the race. Most analysts, even Republicans, believe that Warner would enter the contest as a strong favorite. The Republican field could turn fratricidal if Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a moderate whose political base is in the suburbs of Washington, goes up against former governor James S. Gilmore III, a confrontational conservative.
The conservative Club for Growth, a free-spending political action committee unafraid to take sides in Republican primary fights, sent out a warning shot in a news release on Friday, declaring: "Virginia Republicans should take a long look at Davis' thirteen-year record as one of more economically liberal members of the Republican Conference."
But congressional aides close to Warner say the popular former governor is still deeply torn between a Senate bid and holding out for a possible vice presidential nomination, a Cabinet post in a Democratic administration or another run for governor. As recently as Thursday night, he had not tipped his hand to confidants. And without Warner, there is no obvious Democratic contender.
Beyond Idaho and Virginia, the playing field looks barren for Republicans, GOP campaign aides conceded. Fundraising at the NRSC has been weak, and Republicans appear to have only two real Democratic targets next year, Sens. Mary Landrieu (La.) and Tim Johnson (S.D.). Johnson's slow recovery from a brain hemorrhage has impeded Republicans from going on the attack.