GOP Faces Growing Peril In 2008 Races

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday rated the Colorado seat being vacated by Sen. Wayne Allard (R) as a tossup, but the state has been trending Democratic. Antiwar sentiments are turning some voters away from the GOP, imperiling the reelection prospects of Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), John E. Sununu (N.H.), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Gordon Smith (Ore.).

The Craig scandal is only the latest issue to demoralize the Republican Party, and new wild cards keep springing up, such as an FBI raid on a home of Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and questions about the role that Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R-N.M.) may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias in Albuquerque. Democratic surrogates in labor-backed groups such as Americans United for Change have even been attacking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in Kentucky.

The Cook Report considers those three seats and the Idaho seat "likely Republican," but if the GOP is forced to spend any money defending them, it would be siphoning funds from races where the money would be badly needed. As of June 30, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.4 million on hand, while the National Republican Senatorial Committee had $5.8 million in its bank account.

"If Republicans are investing significant money in Idaho, that means they are losing at least five seats in 2008," said Nathan L. Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "If Idaho ends up the fire wall, they are in deep trouble."

Fisher conceded that fundraising has been difficult in the current political climate, but she said the race for cash is picking up. And she predicted that if Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) secures the Democratic presidential nomination, Republicans will come to the polls in droves.

Schumer called that "grasping at straws," noting that when similar predictions about Clinton were made in her Senate races in New York, they proved to be untrue.

Republican campaign operatives are privately fretting about a political environment that could remain deadly for their party.

"About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't on the ballot," a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. "I don't see even the rosiest scenario where we don't end up losing more seats."