Democratic Gains Are Predicted in Va. Assembly

With Congress deadlocked on comprehensive immigration reform, Virginia Republicans are hoping to capitalize on what they believe is a demand by many Virginians to crack down on illegal immigration.

Last week, Stosch and House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) unveiled a proposal to prohibit illegal immigrants from attending public colleges and require sheriffs to check people's immigration status before releasing them from jail.

O'Brien, whose Democratic opponent has criticized his vote supporting the abusive-driving fees, said illegal immigration is the top concern in his district, which covers parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties. "If Democrats want to run on abuser fees, I am going to run on illegal immigration," said O'Brien, who is being challenged by George L. Barker, a longtime community leader and health planner from Clifton.

Illegal immigration could be a particularly effective issue for Republicans running in Loudoun and Prince William, where Democrats hope to pick up several House seats. GOP leaders in those counties recently have taken steps to cut off services for illegal immigrants.

"It has been a Republican crackdown on illegal immigration, and I think that will aid our Republican delegates and senators," said Corey A. Stewart (R-At Large), Prince William Board of County Supervisors chairman.

House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong (D-Henry) countered, "It's clearly an issue we feel is a problem too, and we will be talking about how to address that."

Voter anger about illegal immigration could boost turnout. A lack of statewide races, as is the case this year, historically produces low turnout, which means candidates often battle block by block for votes.

"This is really going to be a Republican base versus Democratic base election, where it is a test of who can get voters mad enough to show up at the polls," said Michael Thompson, president of the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, a nonpartisan, conservative-leaning think tank in Springfield.

GOP strategist J. Scott Leake said Senate Republicans are polling extensively, which they hope will allow them to refine a winning message in the campaign's final weeks. Senate GOP leaders are also preparing for an intense ground game to mobilize voters, which is being coordinated by paid staffers dispatched to competitive Senate districts.

But Republicans may be outspent by Democrats. Kaine's political action committee has more than $1 million to dole out to Democratic candidates and will probably pick up another $1 million at a Northern Virginia fundraiser this month.

Republicans are turning to national GOP groups for money. Last week, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which elects Republican state legislators, contributed $185,000 to Howell's political action committee.

The GOP has little margin for error because Democrats did a better job recruiting candidates. Few incumbent Democratic delegates or senators are facing serious Republican challenges. But at least eight GOP-held Senate seats and a dozen Republican-held House seats could be up for grabs, political strategists say.

A big Democratic win could be the culmination of years of building momentum for the party, evidenced by Kaine's and Warner's election and U.S. Sen. James Webb's victory last year. The GOP has also lost seven state House seats since 2002, five of those in Northern Virginia.

Hoping to reverse the trend, Republicans in the House and Senate put aside years of squabbling over tax increases this year and approved a plan to raise $1 billion annually for roads and transit. The legislation was designed to boost the GOP's standing in congested Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia, but it has been hard for legislators to take credit for it because the bill included the controversial steep fees on bad drivers, with fines of as much as $3,000. Kaine and Howell have agreed to make changes, although not until January.

Now, said Democratic pollster Pete Brodnitz, Republicans "are in a position of saying, 'Reelect me so I can go to Richmond and fix the abuser fees that I passed.' "

K. Clayton Roberts, president of the Virginia Foundation for Research and Economic Education, a business coalition, said Northern Virginia Republicans "are in a far better posture now than they would have been if they failed to do anything" about transportation funding this year. But Roberts added that the abuser fee issue "is cutting deeply" in some races.

"It is kind of refreshing to see people get angry and pay attention for once," Roberts said. "Maybe people will actually vote."