By Tim Craig
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 2, 2007
RICHMOND -- Virginia Democrats are in a strong position to make substantial gains in the General Assembly in the Nov. 6 election, strategists in both parties say, setting the stage for an expensive battle this fall with Republicans, who are trying to keep control of the Senate and House of Delegates.
With the seats of all 140 delegates and senators up for election, Democrats say they are feeling increasingly confident that they can retake the Senate and pick up three to six seats in the House. Democrats need to gain four seats in the Senate and 11 in the House to grab power from the Republicans for the first time since 1999.
Across the state this weekend, candidates will swarm parades and festivals to mark the traditional Labor Day start of the fall campaign. Also at stake are dozens of contests for county offices, including the boards of supervisors and school boards in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties.
Democrats are energized by what they say was GOP leaders' slow response to the summer-long storm over abusive-driving fees and by President Bush's unpopularity in the polls. Shifting demographics in several GOP-held House and Senate districts have also improved their chances, Democrats say.
Republicans are hoping that passion over the illegal immigration issue will drive voters to back their candidates. GOP candidates will also make the argument that if the party retains control, it would mean lower taxes, controls on development and more education spending. Once voters "understand and hear that message, our candidates stand tall," said Senate Majority Leader Walter A. Stosch (R-Henrico).
But Republicans are on the defensive, even in some traditionally conservative areas of the state, in part because some voters are agitated with Bush and the war in Iraq.
"I'm glad I am not on the ballot this year," said J. Kenneth Klinge, a Republican strategist from Fairfax County. "It's not going to be an easy year."
Control of the Virginia Senate could be decided in Fairfax County, where three Republican incumbents -- Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, Ken Cuccinelli II and James K. "Jay" O'Brien Jr. -- have strong Democratic challengers. Several GOP-held House seats in Fairfax are also being targeted by the Democrats.
Popular Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and former governor Mark R. Warner, a possible U.S. Senate candidate next year, plan to campaign for Democrats this fall. If Democrats take control of the state government, they would probably emphasize transportation, the environment and education.
"We are seeing a real opportunity for our candidates because Virginians have felt very good about how the state has been running under governor Warner and me," Kaine said. "You are going to see some real vigorous competition even in seats where in the past there hasn't been a lot of competition."
John H. Hager, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said the GOP plans to counter Kaine by mobilizing its core supporters, despite the national political environment. Former governor James S. Gilmore III and former senator George Allen, who also might be future statewide candidates, will probably assist Republican General Assembly candidates.
"Of course there is a fatigue factor with Republicans in Washington," Hager said of the Bush administration, which has been in power since 2001. "What we've got to do is take leadership and develop a message that motivates our troops."
With Congress deadlocked on comprehensive immigration reform, Virginia Republicans are hoping to capitalize on what they believe is a demand by many Virginians to crack down on illegal immigration.
Last week, Stosch and House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) unveiled a proposal to prohibit illegal immigrants from attending public colleges and require sheriffs to check people's immigration status before releasing them from jail.
O'Brien, whose Democratic opponent has criticized his vote supporting the abusive-driving fees, said illegal immigration is the top concern in his district, which covers parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties. "If Democrats want to run on abuser fees, I am going to run on illegal immigration," said O'Brien, who is being challenged by George L. Barker, a longtime community leader and health planner from Clifton.
Illegal immigration could be a particularly effective issue for Republicans running in Loudoun and Prince William, where Democrats hope to pick up several House seats. GOP leaders in those counties recently have taken steps to cut off services for illegal immigrants.
"It has been a Republican crackdown on illegal immigration, and I think that will aid our Republican delegates and senators," said Corey A. Stewart (R-At Large), Prince William Board of County Supervisors chairman.
House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong (D-Henry) countered, "It's clearly an issue we feel is a problem too, and we will be talking about how to address that."
Voter anger about illegal immigration could boost turnout. A lack of statewide races, as is the case this year, historically produces low turnout, which means candidates often battle block by block for votes.
"This is really going to be a Republican base versus Democratic base election, where it is a test of who can get voters mad enough to show up at the polls," said Michael Thompson, president of the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, a nonpartisan, conservative-leaning think tank in Springfield.
GOP strategist J. Scott Leake said Senate Republicans are polling extensively, which they hope will allow them to refine a winning message in the campaign's final weeks. Senate GOP leaders are also preparing for an intense ground game to mobilize voters, which is being coordinated by paid staffers dispatched to competitive Senate districts.
But Republicans may be outspent by Democrats. Kaine's political action committee has more than $1 million to dole out to Democratic candidates and will probably pick up another $1 million at a Northern Virginia fundraiser this month.
Republicans are turning to national GOP groups for money. Last week, the Republican State Leadership Committee, which elects Republican state legislators, contributed $185,000 to Howell's political action committee.
The GOP has little margin for error because Democrats did a better job recruiting candidates. Few incumbent Democratic delegates or senators are facing serious Republican challenges. But at least eight GOP-held Senate seats and a dozen Republican-held House seats could be up for grabs, political strategists say.
A big Democratic win could be the culmination of years of building momentum for the party, evidenced by Kaine's and Warner's election and U.S. Sen. James Webb's victory last year. The GOP has also lost seven state House seats since 2002, five of those in Northern Virginia.
Hoping to reverse the trend, Republicans in the House and Senate put aside years of squabbling over tax increases this year and approved a plan to raise $1 billion annually for roads and transit. The legislation was designed to boost the GOP's standing in congested Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia, but it has been hard for legislators to take credit for it because the bill included the controversial steep fees on bad drivers, with fines of as much as $3,000. Kaine and Howell have agreed to make changes, although not until January.
Now, said Democratic pollster Pete Brodnitz, Republicans "are in a position of saying, 'Reelect me so I can go to Richmond and fix the abuser fees that I passed.' "
K. Clayton Roberts, president of the Virginia Foundation for Research and Economic Education, a business coalition, said Northern Virginia Republicans "are in a far better posture now than they would have been if they failed to do anything" about transportation funding this year. But Roberts added that the abuser fee issue "is cutting deeply" in some races.
"It is kind of refreshing to see people get angry and pay attention for once," Roberts said. "Maybe people will actually vote."
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