7 Questions as the Race for the White House Accelerates

Huckabee has been inching his way upward all summer. His debate performances have been solid; his conservative conviction, clever one-liners and upbeat personality have won him strong reviews; and he has caught the eye of Democrats, as well. But with Giuliani, Romney, Thompson and McCain as competition, the opportunity to break through is limited. Still, he is the most likely to surprise one of those big four come the early states, and he already leads McCain in Iowa.

On the Democratic side, the challenge is even greater. A New Hampshire-based Democrat said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is best positioned to move up. Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut is looking for a boost from his endorsement by the International Association of Fire Fighters.

But Clinton, Obama and Edwards (in Iowa, at least) take up so much space, and the two leaders have so much money, that the others face long odds despite their solid experience and credibility.

Does the new, turbo- charged calendar make Iowa and New Hampshire more important -- or less?

More important, unless they aren't -- and that's not as odd as it sounds.

In the Democratic field, none of the candidates is acting as if any states matter more than Iowa and New Hampshire. Democrats say that if Clinton wins Iowa, she will be extremely difficult to stop, short of some unexpected event.

"I do think [Iowa and New Hampshire] are at least as important as before," wrote strategist Jim Margolis, who is working for Obama. "Everything's on speed."

"It's made it more important because on the Democratic side, it could produce a giant-killer," said Gina Glantz, who was Bill Bradley's campaign manager in 2000.

On the Republican side, the calculations are different. Giuliani's strategy is based on reaping a big batch of delegates on Feb. 5. But the idea that he will ignore Iowa and New Hampshire has been put to rest by his burst of activity in those states.

If there is no clarity coming out of the early states, the new calendar will take hold. "The new system makes the early states really important, but you still need the money to compete in the mass of primaries that hit February 5th," said John G. Geer, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University.

That means alternative strategies could be winning strategies in 2008, and the real day of reckoning for Iowa and New Hampshire may be in 2012, not next year.

Is it too late for Al Gore or Newt Gingrich to get into the race?

In a word, yes. Not that they couldn't jump in. But the prospects do not look bright for either. "It's not too late for Al Gore and Newt to get in, but it's certainly too late for either of them to win," Newhouse said.

Thompson's entry means far less room for Gingrich, and the former House speaker carries very high negatives. Gore enjoys significant popularity among Democrats, but because Democrats are happy with their candidates, there is no real yearning for him to enter.