7 Questions as the Race for the White House Accelerates

"The only reason is if he thought no one was going to challenge" Clinton, said a veteran of Gore's 2000 campaign.

Do ideas matter in this election?

Yes, but no candidate has yet seized the mantle of the ideas candidate -- though Edwards has certainly tried.

"Ideas do matter," a GOP strategist said. "The American people are sick of the nonsense. They're cynical. They're angry, they're sick of the status quo. . . . They're looking for someone to call them to action. . . . I don't think anyone has effectively done that so far."

Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin said the important ideas are not position papers but something larger. "What matters are big ideas about what's at the root of our problems and what kind of leadership it will take to fix it," he wrote. Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992 found that chord. "I don't think anyone has risen to that level yet."

Dan Gerstein, a centrist Democrat and strategist, said: "The reality is both parties are brain-dead -- they have no new big ideas to deal with the challenges we face today. Which is why I continue to believe that there is an opening for an independent, reform-oriented campaign to run against politics as usual and on a solutions-driven message."

When do I really need to start paying attention, and should I trust the polls?

If you've read this far, you're obviously paying close attention already. If you jumped to this question first, here are some thoughts from those who live and breathe campaigns.

Many strategists are skeptical of all polls right now. Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) was at 9 percent in a Gallup poll of Democrats in January 2004, before the Iowa caucuses. By early February, after a string of victories, he was at 52 percent.

Some strategists said they especially distrust national polls, but there were notable dissenters. Because there will be a virtual national primary on Feb. 5, nationwide polls may tell more about the race than in past years -- and they still help candidates raise money.

State polls may matter more because they reflect the sentiment of voters who are far more exposed to the candidates than those in other parts of the country. But even state polls will be more useful by November or December, after voters have been bombarded by millions of dollars in ads.

As for when things really begin to matter, there are several possible starting points. Once past the Labor Day gate, candidates will begin to engage one another more directly, and the substantive arguments will intensify. Gore regained lost ground in the fall of 1999 with an attack against Bradley on health care.

But even in the early states, many voters don't get serious until much closer to the contests, as Iowa showed in 2004 and as New Hampshire has demonstrated any number of times.

One Democrat said most people could wait until a month before the Iowa caucuses to start paying close attention. But another strategist said the early calendar, the extraordinary intensity of this campaign and the high stakes mean everyone should start paying attention between now and Thanksgiving to understand the candidates.

Some voters may prefer to take their lead from results in the early states, she said, but added, "If you're making up your own mind, you should start now."