By Robert D. Novak
Thursday, September 6, 2007

Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign hints that agreeing to refrain from campaigning in outlaw Florida and Michigan primaries is a noble sacrifice, bowing to party rules. Some of the news media bought into that, with the New York Times reporting: "The decision seemed to dash any hopes of Mrs. Clinton relying on a strong showing in Florida as a springboard to the nomination." Rather, her forbearance looks like a windfall for the Democratic front-runner.

Democratic consultant Bob Shrum, who does not have a candidate this time around, correctly interpreted the decision by Clinton and her two principal competitors, Barack Obama and John Edwards, to follow Democratic National Committee rules. On NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, Shrum said: "That actually, in a perverse way," could "help Senator Clinton. If no one campaigns and she wins . . . the primary in Florida, wins the primary in Michigan, that could have a knockout effect."

Being forced to stay out of Florida and Michigan leverages Clinton's vastly superior name recognition in the two high-population states and could counterbalance potential defeats in less-populated Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This poses a dilemma for Obama, Clinton's main challenger, that key supporters admit he cannot resolve. Obama probably cannot win the excluded states without campaigning in them.

While Clinton's backers trumpet her inevitable nomination as the Democratic candidate and she widens her lead over Obama in national polls, she faces hotly competitive races in early primary states. She is more popular in states where she has not campaigned than in states where she has, replicating the condition of Robert J. Dole, a similarly anointed Republican candidate in 1996.

The worst-case scenario for Clinton would see her tripped up in the four originally scheduled early tests locked in by the DNC: the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 14, the Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19, the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 22 and South Carolina's primary on Jan. 29. Clinton could lose all those (except perhaps Nevada), ravaging her national standing right before the avalanche of "Tsunami Tuesday" primaries on Feb. 5. In 2004, Howard Dean did not lose his national standing until he started losing early contests.

But Michigan and Florida did not want to miss out on the election-year fun, rejecting the anonymity of the Feb. 5 mob scene. Defying DNC rules, Florida moved its primary to Jan. 29 and Michigan switched to Jan. 15, not specifying whether it would be holding a caucus or a primary. The early states then said they would adjust their own dates to make certain that they voted first. The DNC imposed sanctions on the rebellious states: the loss of their national convention delegates and a prohibition on candidates campaigning there. The word in Democratic circles was that Florida and Michigan would get back their delegates before the convention and that nothing could stop presidential candidates from campaigning in those states.

But a week ago all the Democratic candidates agreed to follow DNC rules. Contending that early primary states "play a unique and special role in the nominating process," the Clinton campaign said "the DNC's rules and its calendar provide the necessary structure to respect and honor that role." What its statement did not say is how much Clinton actually welcomed Michigan and Florida's rule-breaking.

Assume that Clinton starts by losing Iowa and New Hampshire after more than a year of campaigning. Such losses could be nullified in campaign-free Michigan, where a poll gives Clinton a 19-percentage-point lead over Obama. Assume Clinton then loses in South Carolina, where she has campaigned hard. That could be nullified in campaign-free Florida, where polls show Clinton with a lead as large as 30 points.

What is Obama to do? He cannot set foot in Michigan or Florida before Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina vote, for fear of offending voters jealous of their prerogatives. Nor, his supporters believe, could he slip into Florida for a little campaigning during a gap between the South Carolina primary and the voting there, because that would smack of desperation. Clinton truly has gotten a gift from the politicians of Florida and Michigan.

? 2007 Creators Syndicate Inc.