Mark Warner Weighs His Options

Democrats believe Warner also has a solid electoral strategy for winning a Senate race because he remains popular both in Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia as well as traditionally conservative southern and southwestern Virginia.

In 2001, he became the first Democratic candidate for governor in a generation to win a majority of the vote in rural Virginia, Saunders said.

"He has kept all his contacts down here," said Saunders, who is based in Roanoke.

But if he runs for Senate, Warner will be competing in a presidential election year. Republicans say Warner will then be linked with his party's presidential nominee, possibly Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), whom GOP strategists view as too polarizing to win Virginia.

"When he ran for governor, he avoided all ties to the Clintons. This time, he could be right on the ballot with them," said former attorney general Jerry W. Kilgore (R), who lost to Kaine in 2005.

Warner said Friday he's not worried about potentially being on the same ballot as Clinton.

"I think our country is looking for change. I think our Democratic candidate, whoever he or she may be, is going to present that agenda for change," Warner said.

Even so, Warner would face a far different campaign in 2008 than he would if he ran for governor in 2009.

In Virginia, for example, tens of thousands of members of the military vote in presidential elections but not statewide contests, political strategists say. Many of these voters have sided with the GOP in recent presidential elections, and they are not prone to split their tickets.

Warner could be tripped up over divisive social issues, such as gay rights, that have been problems for Democrats in the South since the 1960s.

"Look around the country: Whole Senate races have been run on guns, gays and abortion," said Larry J. Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia. "That would be a nightmare for Warner. They are really unpleasant issues for politicians like Warner, who are natural centrists and who want to talk about nuts and bolts government and not social battles."

During his talk Friday, Warner waded into the contentious issue of illegal immigration in response to a student's question.

Warner said he wants to secure the borders but also would be sympathetic to allowing those already in the country illegally to stay.

"The notion we are going to be sweeping through with mass deportations in communities -- I just don't think it's realistic," said Warner, who later added, "I hate some of the feelings that our country is looking and feeling as if it's becoming anti-immigrant."

Jennifer Duffy, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, said Warner's big advantage in a Senate race is that he would be able to define himself during the spring while Gilmore and Davis could be battling for the nomination.

"One of the things Mark Warner doesn't have to do is spend a lot of money to tell people who he is," Duffy said. "He will be getting a free ride until Republicans work out their nomination, and then it will be one of the top races in the country."