Warner Officially Launches Campaign

But the GOP faces a potentially divisive battle for the nomination between Rep. Thomas M. Davis III and former governor James S. Gilmore III. Both are likely to seek the nomination, but neither is expected to announce plans until after the Nov. 6 state elections. The Virginia Republican State Central Committee will meet Oct. 13 to decide whether to hold a nominating convention or a primary.

Davis said in a statement Thursday, "[T]here are no coronations in Virginia politics." If Mark Warner is elected, Davis said, he would "become another vote for [Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid's policies in the U.S. Senate."

Warner is not likely to face a serious opponent for the nomination, giving him time to prepare for next year's campaign, including raising money. But Gilmore and Davis face more immediate challenges with the question of a convention or primary to choose the GOP nominee.

Any registered voter can vote in a GOP primary, but conventions are exclusive affairs, which have traditionally been dominated by conservatives. Davis's advisers are advocating a primary while Gilmore wants a convention.

Gilmore is trying to position himself as the only true conservative in the race. Gilmore supporters say Warner, who was popular with rural voters as governor, can be defeated next year only if the Republican base is riled up.

"We've got to get back the Republican Party to where it was, and that is, running a strong conservative ticket," said Linwood M. Cobb, chairman of the Seventh District Republican Committee of central Virginia. "Tom Davis has strayed from the reservation on too many votes."

Davis, who already has $1 million in the bank, says he is the most electable candidate. He is widely perceived as more moderate than Gilmore and is a proven vote-getter in Northern Virginia, where Democrats have been making steady inroads.

Some Republicans say Davis will be rewarded because he has spent years laying the groundwork for a statewide bid by dishing out campaign cash to local and state GOP officials across the state.

"Tom Davis has been out all over Virginia helping people," said Tucker Watkins, a party leader in Southern Virginia. "I have talked to a lot of hard-core conservatives who are for Tom Davis."

Gilmore, who was governor from 1998 to 2002 and briefly ran for president this year, is also being criticized by some party activists who say they were shunned by his administration after he was first elected.

"It seemed as if when they got in the castle, they raised up the drawbridge and made fun of you from across the moat," said one longtime party activist, who declined to be identified because the activist still works closely with Gilmore's top advisers.

Davis faces his own challenges, including his past support for some tax increases and gun control measures.

Morton C. Blackwell, a Virginia Republican National Committee member who supports Gilmore, said Davis is "is not a good fit for the conservative Republicans in Virginia."

David Avella, a Northern Virginia GOP activist who supports Davis, countered, "I will say an embarrassing presidential campaign that ended in debt is not the traditional path to getting to the U.S. Senate."