For Senate Democrats, Opportunity Knocks Seven Times

It's no secret that Senate Democrats are looking at a target-rich environment in 2008. Open Republican seats in Colorado, Virginia and Nebraska are likely to be seriously contested by Democrats, while Republican incumbents in Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Oregon are also in danger.

The flip side of the story is positive for Democrats, as well: They have almost no vulnerabilities at the moment.

The lone Democratic seat that deserves to be bunched with the seven vulnerable Republican-held seats belongs to Louisiana, where Sen. Mary Landrieu is seeking a third term. Louisiana has drifted toward Republicans in recent years, in part a result of the bungled Democratic-led recovery from Hurricane Katrina and a declining New Orleans area voter base. State Treasurer John N. Kennedy, who recently dropped his Democratic affiliation and joined the GOP, is the preferred candidate of national Republican leaders.

The only other Democratic seat that is on both parties' radar belongs to South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson returned to work only recently after a near-fatal brain hemorrhage in December. Johnson has sent mixed signals about his reelection plans but, of late, seems more inclined to run than to drop out. If he follows through, Republicans will probably not field a serious challenge.

Beyond those two races, the Republican recruiting stable is empty.

Take Montana, a state President Bush carried by 20 percentage points in 2004 but where Republicans are struggling to find a top-tier candidate to take on Sen. Max Baucus (D). Rep. Denny Rehberg, by far the Republicans' strongest potential candidate, isn't interested.

Former state senator Bob Keenan, who challenged then-Sen. Conrad Burns in last year's Republican primary, is mentioned but seems more interested in a race against Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D).

In Iowa, Sen. Tom Harkin (D) has never won reelection with more than 55 percent of the vote. GOP Reps. Tom Latham and Steve King seem disinclined to run, as does former congressman Jim Nussle. So far, only unknown businessman Steve Rathje is in the Republican race.

One unlikely Republican opportunity could be in New Jersey, where even Democratic strategists acknowledge that Sen. Frank Lautenberg's numbers are somewhat soft.

In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, 31 percent of New Jersey voters said Lautenberg deserves reelection, while 54 percent of the sample agreed with the statement that Lautenberg is "too old to effectively serve another six-year term as U.S. Senator." He's 83.

The problem for Republicans? New Jersey campaigns are largely waged in two of the nation's most expensive media markets: New York City's and Philadelphia's. Republicans would need millions of dollars they don't have to make the race competitive.

Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. remains mired in single digits in Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses, but that hasn't stopped the Delaware Democrat from raking in high-profile endorsements from members of the state's legislature.

The latest addition to Biden's camp is state House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who threw his lot with Biden late last week. "Iraq is by far the single most important issue facing America today, and Joe Biden has the most credible plan to get us out without causing further chaos," McCarthy said.

The addition of McCarthy gives Biden eight state legislative endorsements, the most for any Democratic presidential candidate other than Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.).

"This is a growing indication from Iowa Democrats that Joe Biden is the candidate that they want to see at the top of the ticket next November and that his leadership on Iraq is crucial to the Democratic Party's success in 2008," said spokeswoman Marion Steinfels of McCarthy's backing.

But Biden still needs to find a way to translate support from Iowa legislators into support from voters. Most independent polls put him behind Clinton, Obama, former senator John Edwards (N.C.) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. Biden has also struggled to remain financially competitive with the top-tier candidates, ending June with $2.8 million left to spend on the race.